Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are set to cease on Wednesday, marking the expiration of a five-year agreement between Ukraine’s gas transit operator and Russia’s Gazprom. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared that Ukraine would not permit Russia to “profit from our blood” and indicated that the European Union was given a year to prepare for this transition.
Since the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU has dramatically reduced its gas imports from Russia. However, several eastern member states continue to rely heavily on these supplies, amounting to approximately €5 billion annually for Russia. The European Commission has assured that the continent’s gas infrastructure remains “resilient and flexible,” equipped to handle the consequences of halted transit through Ukraine.
As of 2023, Russian gas accounted for less than 10% of the EU’s gas imports, a significant decrease from 40% in 2021. Nonetheless, countries like Slovakia and Austria still import substantial quantities of Russian gas. Austria’s energy regulator has expressed confidence in the stability of its gas supplies, citing diversification of sources and built-up reserves.
Ukraine’s decision has caused escalating tensions with Slovakia, now the primary entry point for Russian gas into the EU. The situation worsened when Slovakia’s Prime Minister threatened to cut off electricity supplies to Ukraine, leading Zelensky to accuse him of assisting Russia’s war efforts against Ukraine.
In response, Poland has pledged support to Ukraine in the event of a Slovakian electricity cut-off, which is critical for Ukraine amid ongoing Russian assaults on its energy infrastructure.
Moldova, not an EU member, may face significant repercussions from the cessation of the transit agreement, as Russian gas powers a vital plant that supplies most of its electricity. Moldova’s energy minister indicated measures are being taken to secure stable power supplies but urged citizens to conserve energy amid a 60-day state of emergency in the energy sector.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu has accused the Kremlin of attempting to destabilize her country ahead of its 2025 general election, while also announcing government assistance to the breakaway region of Transnistria.
Russia has supplied gas to Europe through Ukraine since 1991. As the EU continues to lessen its dependence on Russian gas, it has successfully sought alternatives such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) from other countries. With the Ukrainian transit route closing, the TurkStream pipeline through the Black Sea will remain the sole conduit for Russian gas into Europe.
The European Commission has outlined contingency plans aimed at enabling EU member states to fully replace the gas formerly transiting through Ukraine. In these plans, affected nations will receive gas from Greece, Turkey, and Romania along the Trans-Balkan route, while additional supplies from Norway will be routed through Poland, bolstering central European gas availability via Germany.
