In a significant development following a landmark speech at the Nashville Bitcoin conference in July 2024, Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a Bitcoin reserve bill aimed at addressing U.S. debt concerns. Recent research suggests that, if enacted, this legislation could allow Bitcoin to offset as much as 18% of the national debt before the government can start selling its Bitcoin reserves.
On February 21, 2025, investment management firm VanEck unveiled a new tool to assess the potential effects of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve on the U.S. debt scenario based on specific conditions. The tool enables analysis of the number of bitcoins purchased annually by the government, the average prices at which bitcoins are acquired in 2025, and projected annual growth rates for Bitcoin value and U.S. debt.
This calculator is built on VanEck’s research, which outlines how quickly Bitcoin reserves could mitigate national debt under predetermined parameters. Importantly, the study operates under the assumption that Lummis’s proposed Bitcoin Act will be passed this year without substantial amendments.
VanEck’s research speculates that the U.S. Treasury could accumulate one million bitcoins over a five-year period, maintaining them for 20 years solely for the purpose of debt repayment. According to projections from December 2024, the anticipated total value of these bitcoins could reach $21 trillion by 2049, effectively covering approximately 18% of a national debt estimated to rise to around $116 trillion by 2029.
These figures are contingent upon specific growth projections for both U.S. debt and Bitcoin prices. VanEck anticipates the national debt will increase at a rate of 5% annually, while Bitcoin could see an average increase of 25%, potentially elevating its value from nearly $100,000 to an astonishing $21 million per coin by 2049.
Additionally, the government could obtain more than one million bitcoins through means such as asset seizures and donations, further impacting its reserve portfolio.
Overall, VanEck’s findings suggest that while the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may not immediately resolve U.S. debt issues, it aligns with Senator Lummis’s July 2024 remarks regarding the necessity of addressing the debt rather than merely mitigating it.
Can Bitcoin Fully Erase U.S. Debt?
In an August 2024 interview, former President Donald Trump suggested the potential for Bitcoin to substantially contribute towards reducing U.S. debt.
Excluding projected future debt growth, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates could reach approximately $50 trillion by 2035, the U.S. government would require about 36 million bitcoins valued at $1 million each—an aspiration frequently discussed by cryptocurrency proponents. However, the maximum supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million, underscoring the scarcity that drives its value.
Currently, BlackRock holds the largest Bitcoin reserve, owning over half a million bitcoins. Michael Saylor, a prominent Bitcoin advocate, stated that “there’s only room for one nation-state to buy up 20% of the Bitcoin network,” indicating the competitive landscape surrounding Bitcoin acquisition.
Acquiring even one million bitcoins presents considerable challenges. Senator Lummis has projected that the U.S. government has five years to secure this amount, with Bitcoin prices likely needing to reach $36 billion by 2030 for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to contribute meaningfully to debt repayment, despite expectations of rising debt values.
Moreover, converting such a vast quantity of bitcoins into cash poses its own hurdles, as the U.S. would need to identify sufficient buyers to prevent a price collapse due to market saturation.
Ultimately, while Bitcoin may serve as a partial remedy for U.S. debt, claims regarding its capacity to entirely eliminate the debt remain unsubstantiated at this time.
