WASHINGTON — A new analysis has raised concerns regarding the projected higher deficits associated with the economic plans of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
The analysis, published by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, indicates that a Harris presidency could result in an increase of the national debt by $3.5 trillion over the next decade. Despite this, her campaign maintains that proposed investments aimed at boosting the middle class and housing will be fully offset by increased taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals. Harris is said to be “committed to fiscal responsibility,” emphasizing a balanced approach to investing in the economy while reducing the deficit.
In contrast, the analysis projects that Trump’s economic strategies could add an alarming $7.5 trillion to the national debt and potentially even as much as $15.2 trillion. Trump claims that under his administration, economic growth would render concerns about deficits unnecessary.
This comprehensive report highlights an urgent issue of rising government borrowing that will be a significant challenge for the next president following the election. The current federal debt exceeds $28 trillion and may continue to rise, as government revenues struggle to meet the increasing costs associated with Social Security, Medicare, and other essential programs. This debt burden is now consuming more financial resources than both national defense and healthcare for senior citizens.
The analysis offers a stark warning: “Debt would continue to grow faster than the economy under either candidate’s plans and in most scenarios would exceed current law projections.”
While both candidates have not prominently featured budget deficit reduction in their campaigns, analyses suggest a notable discrepancy, with Harris appearing to embrace a more fiscally responsible approach compared to Trump.
Harvard economist Jason Furman has estimated that Harris’ initiatives could either reduce deficits by $1.5 trillion or increase them by an equal amount. In contrast, Trump’s proposals are projected to swell the deficits by $5 trillion, a figure that does not account for his tax policies regarding overtime pay and state and local tax deductions.
Further evaluations from reputable sources indicate that Harris would likely be more effective in maintaining a manageable deficit.
According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Harris’ policy adjustments could contribute an additional $3.5 trillion to the national debt by 2035, contingent upon various program spending interpretations.
The report postulates that if Harris were to implement $4.6 trillion in tax reductions, including extensions of some 2017 tax cuts and tax benefits for families, the projected $4 trillion in increased taxes on corporations and the wealthy would still fall short of offsetting her agenda’s total costs along with the anticipated interest on the accruing debt.
The analysis also points out that while Harris’ agenda could potentially add nothing to the baseline deficits, it might plausibly result in a staggering $8.1 trillion in added debt under worst-case assumptions.
In a contrasting view, Trump’s strategies are likely to result in an additional $7.5 trillion in debt; his estimated $2.7 trillion in tariff revenues would fall short of covering the anticipated $9.2 trillion in tax cuts and related expenditures, such as funding unauthorized immigration enforcement.
The report further explores scenarios under Trump’s proposals, suggesting that, should tariffs generate less revenue or if deportation initiatives incur higher costs, the national debt could surge dramatically by up to $15.2 trillion.
Alternatively, if Trump’s tariffs yield $4.3 trillion in revenue with no financial obligations linked to his deportation plans, his policies could increase the national debt by a mere $1.5 trillion over the next decade.
