WASHINGTON — Elections in Florida and Wisconsin are emerging as critical indicators of President Donald Trump’s political influence as he enters his second term in office.
The spotlight on Tuesday is focused on a pivotal race for a swing seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, a nonpartisan position that has already attracted over $90 million in campaign spending. Supporters for conservative judge Brad Schimel, backed by Trump, are going head-to-head against liberal candidate Susan Crawford, who is backed by progressive donors.
In Florida, two Republican-leaning congressional districts hold potential for the GOP to strengthen its position in a closely divided House. However, Democratic candidates in these areas have significantly outperformed their GOP rivals in fundraising, raising concerns among national Republicans, especially regarding the race to fill the seat vacated by Mike Waltz, now serving as Trump’s national security adviser.
Key regions to monitor as election results are announced on Tuesday include:
In Wisconsin, Democrats traditionally achieve substantial victories in populous Milwaukee and Dane counties (home to Madison), which play a crucial role in statewide outcomes, especially in tightly contested elections.
In the 2024 elections, Kamala Harris garnered 68% of the vote in Milwaukee and 75% in Dane while narrowly losing the overall statewide vote. On the same ballot, U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin outperformed Harris by approximately 2 percentage points in both counties, securing her reelection.
In the recent 2023 contest, Democratic-backed Supreme Court candidate Janet Protasiewicz achieved 73% of the vote in Milwaukee and 82% in Dane, ultimately winning statewide by an 11-point margin.
Conversely, Republicans have consistently performed well in the suburban counties of Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha—collectively referred to as the “WOW” counties.” Strong Republican turnout in these areas can help mitigate Democratic advantages in urban centers. Historically, Republican candidates have won these counties in every major statewide election since at least 2016.
Republicans also tend to win Brown County, home to Green Bay, but with narrower margins. Trump secured this county in all three presidential elections with vote shares between 52% and 53%.
Notably, two Democrats have successfully won Brown County while also capturing the statewide race: Tony Evers in the 2018 gubernatorial election and Protasiewicz in her 2023 Supreme Court campaign.
Winning Brown County is not essential for a statewide victory—Democrat Joe Biden achieved this in 2020, along with Evers in 2022 and all of Baldwin’s Senate campaigns. Yet, if a Democrat carries Brown, it often signals a challenging night ahead for Republicans.
Sauk County, located northwest of Madison, is another competitive area that typically supports the Democratic candidate, albeit by slim margins. This county represents a moderate population size within Wisconsin’s 72 counties, making it less decisive in statewide elections.
Democrats had a notable winning streak in Sauk, securing the county in eight out of the last ten major statewide elections. However, the two exceptions are significant: Trump won Sauk County in both the 2016 and 2024 elections, when he also captured Wisconsin’s electoral votes.
While Sauk may not significantly impact Tuesday’s outcomes, a Republican victory there could indicate broader statewide support for the party.
In Florida, Democrats are buoyed by the robust fundraising efforts from candidates seeking to replace Waltz and former Rep. Matt Gaetz. However, these special elections are occurring in historically Republican congressional districts.
In the 1st Congressional District of the Florida Panhandle, Trump received approximately 68% of the vote in 2024, slightly better than Gaetz’s 66% in his reelection bid. Meanwhile, in the 6th Congressional District along the Atlantic coast, Trump captured about 65% of the vote, just below the 67% garnered by Waltz in his final election.
The four counties in the 1st District have predominantly favored Republican presidential candidates for the last six decades, with Walton County only backing a Democrat once since 1960. Today, Walton County is firmly anchored as the most Republican-friendly area within the district.
Similarly, Republican candidates have triumphed in all six counties comprising the 6th District during the last four presidential elections, with some counties historically favoring the GOP for decades. For instance, Lake County has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1944, and both Trump and Waltz achieved their highest support in Putnam County, where they secured around 74% of the vote.
If Democrats succeed in pulling off any surprises in either the 1st or 6th districts, the initial signals may arise from their strongest-performing counties.
Despite the Republican stronghold in both districts, Democrats’ leading areas still show where GOP candidates historically performed well. In the 1st District, Trump and Gaetz had their lowest performances in Escambia County, where they received 59% and 57% of the vote, respectively.
In the 6th District, Democrats may find their strongest support in Volusia County, where Trump received 58% and Waltz approximately 60%. Although Republican presidential candidates have dominated Volusia in the past four elections, the region was historically more favorable to Democrats, with the party winning for six consecutive elections from 1992 to 2008.
