Israel and Hamas are reportedly nearing a critical agreement that could bring an end to the conflict in Gaza, potentially resulting in the release of both Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
Arab, U.S., and Israeli officials have indicated that a preliminary deal has been reached, with a final agreement anticipated this week.
This development marks a significant breakthrough in over 15 months of warfare that erupted following the Hamas assault on Israel in October 2023.
Potential Ceasefire Deal between Israel and Hamas
A ceasefire could signify a halt to the ongoing conflict, which has devastated Gaza.
An exchange of hostages and prisoners is expected to accompany the ceasefire agreement.
During the October 2023 attack on Israel, Hamas captured 251 individuals, of whom 94 are still believed to be in captivity, with Israeli officials estimating that 60 are alive.
In return for the hostages, Israel is anticipated to release approximately 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including some who have faced lengthy sentences.
Proposed Structure for the Ceasefire
The ceasefire is anticipated to unfold in three stages, pending the announcement of a formal agreement.
Detailed terms are still being negotiated and may be subject to changes.
First Stage
Israeli government representatives expect that an initial exchange will see 33 hostages—predominantly women, children, the elderly, and those with medical needs—exchanged for Palestinian prisoners. Most of these hostages are believed to be alive.
Three hostages could be released immediately, with the remainder scheduled for exchange over a six-week period. During this phase, Israeli forces are also expected to begin withdrawing from densely populated areas in Gaza.
The Palestinian contact indicated that discussions for the subsequent stages would commence on the 16th day of the ceasefire.
Second Stage
This stage would involve the release of remaining hostages, including soldiers and reservists, in return for additional Palestinian prisoners.
Among the 1,000 Palestinian prisoners to be released, around 190 are serving sentences of 15 years or more, with those convicted of murder not allowed to return to the occupied West Bank.
Additionally, this phase is expected to facilitate the return of displaced civilians currently located in southern Gaza to their homes in the north.
Nearly all of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have been forced to evacuate their homes due to the ongoing conflict.
Third Stage
The final stage would focus on the reconstruction of Gaza, a process that may span several years.
Israeli forces are expected to maintain a buffer zone within Gaza during the ceasefire period.
Key Questions Surrounding the Proposed Deal
The lengthy negotiations leading to this potential ceasefire have been fraught with challenges, largely due to deep-rooted distrust between Israel and Hamas.
Hamas initially demanded a complete cessation of hostilities prior to releasing hostages, a condition that Israeli officials rejected.
The ceasefire, when implemented, would effectively pause hostilities while the agreement terms are executed, but it remains uncertain whether it would signal a lasting end to the conflict.
Israel has aimed to significantly weaken Hamas’s military capabilities, but despite substantial damage inflicted, Hamas retains some operational capacity.
Additionally, the status of several hostages remains shrouded in uncertainty, with concerns regarding the knowledge Hamas possesses about their fates.
Hamas has also requested the release of certain prisoners that Israel is unwilling to consider, including those associated with the October 7 attacks.
It remains unclear if Israel will commit to a timetable for withdrawing from the buffer zone, and any ceasefire is likely to be fragile given historical precedents.
Prior ceasefires between Israel and Hamas have often been disrupted by violence and eventually unraveled, highlighting the delicacy of the current situation.
Background on the October 7 Attack and Its Aftermath
On October 7, 2023, hundreds of Hamas militants launched an unprecedented assault on southern Israel, breaching the border and targeting civilian populations, law enforcement, and military facilities.
This attack resulted in approximately 1,200 fatalities and over 250 individuals taken hostage to Gaza, accompanied by numerous rocket strikes on Israeli territories.
In retaliation, Israel initiated an extensive military campaign, including aerial bombardments and ground operations, leading to widespread devastation across Gaza and severe humanitarian crises. More than 46,600 individuals, primarily civilians, have been reported killed as a result of Israeli military actions according to local health authorities.
