MAHONING COUNTY, OH — The vibrant atmosphere of fair season has returned to Ohio, with the Canfield Fair drawing a wide array of attendees. As the second largest fair in the state, Canfield is known for its delicious offerings, including sausages and vinegar fries, and an unexpected dash of political merchandise.
Political tents from both county parties flank the fairgrounds. Democrats engage with fairgoers through friendship bracelets and signage, while Republicans offer hats and tees, humorously noting they might be the most affordable items at the event.
Despite the efforts, frustration simmers among both parties as some attendees express discontent. The chair of the Mahoning County Democrats lamented about confrontational individuals disrupting their tent, while a GOP volunteer received more scowls than smiles.
These interactions reveal the shifting dynamics in what was once a swing county. Historically, Mahoning County leaned Democratic for decades, but 2020 marked a shift in allegiance.
With the 2024 presidential election on the horizon, Ohio’s significance as a swing state appears diminished for Democrats, while Republicans exude confidence in a favorable outcome. Nevertheless, the state could play a decisive role in determining Senate control, as incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown seeks to retain his position, relying on support from rural Eastern Ohio.
Brown boasts a successful track record and will need a robust turnout from this region to counter Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, who has gained backing from former President Donald Trump.
This election cycle, Democrats aim to minimize losses in counties like Mahoning to secure Brown’s seat.
“If we cut down that margin and lose less, it makes a substantial difference in these races,” stated Chris Anderson, chair of the Mahoning County Democrats. “It’s essential that we show up consistently for these voters, not just every four years.”
Across the fairgrounds, Tom McCabe, chair of the Mahoning County GOP, expressed delight over the GOP’s recent gains in the region.
“It’s thrilling to witness this because it used to be quite challenging for Republicans here,” McCabe remarked, emphasizing the transformation to a predominantly Republican area thanks to rural voters.
Brown’s Unique Position in Ohio Political Landscape
In 2018, Brown succeeded in parts of Northeast Ohio that previously supported Trump in 2016 and 2020. While he fell short in traditionally Republican counties by narrower margins than Democratic candidates like Hillary Clinton in 2016, the trajectory suggests Brown holds a unique position in the state.
Now, as the only statewide-elected Democrat, Brown’s performance in the upcoming election could solidify Republican dominance in Ohio. His past successes in rallying support from voters who previously went for national Democrats may be challenged with Trump on the ballot this time.
“We are confident that Mahoning County will go for Trump again,” McCabe added. “Our primary focus is to win it for Bernie Moreno, which will be a tough fight given Sherrod Brown’s name recognition.”
Republicans recognize the challenge ahead, noting Brown’s popularity and deep ties to the community, bolstered by union support in Mahoning County.
The Shift in Voter Demographics
The eastern Ohio river region, once a Democratic stronghold, has seen considerable shifts in voter allegiance due to economic changes impacting union labor. In this area, which heavily favored Obama in previous elections, the demographic has shifted more towards Republican candidates, including Trump.
“The manufacturing communities in the eastern part of the state were historically supportive of Democrats. The decline of industry has fractured that base,” said Matt Hildreth, executive director of Rural Organizing, emphasizing the need for someone to represent these communities’ interests.
Amid these changes, Brown remains optimistic about retaining his Senate seat and continues community engagement efforts, including recent visits to union halls and manufacturing sites.
As election day approaches, the campaign effort dubbed “Organizing for Ohio” aims to knock on doors across every county, utilizing nearly 500 volunteers focusing on rural outreach for Brown, indicating a more robust engagement strategy than in previous cycles.
Despite the uphill battle posed by Trump’s influence, organizers assert that efforts to mobilize voters in rural areas will be vital for Brown’s success, recognizing a growing trend in rural political engagement across the nation.
Political Engagement and Future Elections
The upcoming elections will test the resolve of both parties in rural Ohio, with Republicans celebrating their increasing dominance while Democrats strive to re-engage a fading support base. Groups like Rural Organizing are at the forefront, driving efforts to build bridges among interactions and diversify voter outreach beyond traditional strongholds.
“To win these upcoming elections, especially in rural regions, both parties must work hard to connect with voters who feel overlooked,” stated volunteers campaigning for Brown. “An inclusive approach will be the key to regaining their trust and votes.”
