Will you live to 100? Despite advancements in healthcare and improved living conditions, life expectancy growth appears to be slowing down in wealthier nations. This trend raises questions about a potential biological limit to human lifespan, although some researchers remain optimistic about future advancements.
The slowdown in life expectancy is a significant shift from the 20th century, where average life expectancy increased by three years per decade in affluent regions, a transformative period referred to as radical life extension. For individuals born in the mid-1800s, life expectancy was between 20 to 50 years, but by the 1990s, it spiked to the 50s to 70s.
Back then, some predicted that individuals born in the 21st century would routinely reach age 100; however, as we reach this milestone, those projections seem overly ambitious.
Analysis of mortality data from 1990 to 2019, encompassing nine affluent countries, revealed that average life expectancy at birth increased by 6.5 years overall. In the United States, the figure reached 78.8 years in 2019, while Hong Kong reported 85 years.
Yet, the growth rate slowed from 2010 to 2019 compared to previous decades, with the U.S. experiencing the most significant decline, potentially influenced by the ongoing opioid crisis. In contrast, Hong Kong was the only region to witness an acceleration in life expectancy gains since 2010, although the factors driving this increase remain unclear.
Researchers project that average life expectancy at birth may peak at 84 for men and 90 for women, indicating that only a small percentage of today’s newborns are likely to reach 100.
This slowdown may result from the major environmental and healthcare advancements achieved in the early 1900s, suggesting we may be nearing a biological limit to aging. However, some experts believe that policy changes leading to social benefit cuts and deteriorating healthcare services have significantly impacted life expectancy growth rates, implying that improved policies could foster continued increases.
There are varying opinions on the future of human lifespan: some argue that targeted investments in anti-aging research could once again extend longevity in wealthier nations. Despite the recent deceleration, it remains a positive development that life expectancy is still rising, highlighting the importance of celebrating our increasing lifespan.
