The global scientific community is breathing a sigh of relief as the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth has been significantly reduced to less than 1 percent. This decrease suggests that a catastrophic collision is unlikely, though the asteroid is still expected to make a remarkably close approach to our planet, offering astronomers a unique chance to study it in detail.
Richard Moissl from the European Space Agency (ESA) stated, “We do not anticipate that the impact probability will rise above 1 percent for the projected close approach to Earth in 2032. It is more likely that the chances will continue to decline, possibly even to zero.”
Concerns about 2024 YR4 were first noted in December when astronomers suggested it might be on a collision trajectory for Earth in 2032. Measuring between 40 and 90 meters in width, the asteroid could cause significant destruction if it were to hit a populated area. Initially, on February 17, the estimated impact risk peaked at 1 in 32, but subsequent observations led to a gradual decrease.
Following new data on February 20, NASA recalibrated the risk of impact to 0.27 percent, or 1 in 360, while ESA reported an even lower probability of 0.16 percent, or 1 in 625. This dramatic decline has resulted in a Torino scale rating of 1, categorizing 2024 YR4 as one of many low-risk asteroids that are detected but do not pose an actual threat to Earth.
Gareth Collins from Imperial College London commented that while the asteroid poses minimal threat, it still provides valuable opportunities for testing planetary defense protocols. “This will generate a notably close encounter. The high initial risk indicates it will come very close to us,” he noted.
Experts from various space organizations are likely to continue preparations for potential deflection strategies, even with the lower impact risk. Niklas Voigt from a German space company indicated that plans to divert 2024 YR4 are still in development. “The risk has decreased, but we will continue to pursue our research on this asteroid,” he explained.
The impending close approach may enable further testing of our ability to deflect asteroids, building upon NASA’s successful DART mission, which altered the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos in 2022. According to Voigt, there are also plans for a satellite mission akin to ESA’s Ramses, which is set to gather data on asteroid Apophis before its close flyby in 2029.
A comprehensive strategy regarding 2024 YR4 will likely be finalized after additional observations are conducted using advanced telescopes in March. This mission will gather crucial information about the asteroid’s size and composition, which will be vital for the United Nations-backed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group to determine the best course of action by late April. Collins added, “These exercises are instrumental in refining decision-making processes and ensuring adequate time for sensible actions.”
Although the likelihood of an Earth impact has significantly dropped, the chance of 2024 YR4 impacting the Moon has increased to 1.2 percent, compared to its previous estimation of 0.3 percent, indicating the need for continued attention and research. Moissl noted, “There is a real possibility of this number increasing, and the specific consequences of an impact on the Moon are still being evaluated.”
This engagement with asteroid 2024 YR4 serves as a crucial rehearsal for managing future threats from other hazardous asteroids. Collins emphasized the importance of maintaining public awareness and preparedness: “We want to prevent a ‘cry wolf’ scenario where people become desensitized to the threat of asteroids.”
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