Since early October, intense cross-border violence between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon, has resulted in the deaths of hundreds and displaced thousands from their homes across both territories. Concerns are rising that this escalating violence could transform into a larger conflict.
Despite ongoing assaults, there seem to be efforts on both sides to avoid a full-scale confrontation. However, the recent strike on Majdal Shams, a Druze town in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, heightens fears of miscalculation.
Israel attributes the attack, which resulted in at least 12 civilian deaths, including children, to Hezbollah, marking it as the deadliest incident in this latest round of hostilities. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed a strong response, stating, “Israel will not overlook this murderous attack. Hezbollah will pay a heavy price which it has not paid up to now.”
Hezbollah has denied responsibility for the Majdal Shams attack.
Before the extent of casualties became clear, Hezbollah claimed it had targeted the Hermon Brigade using an Iranian-made Falaq missile. This missile reportedly deviated from its intended target near Mt Hermon, which is approximately two miles from the site of the explosion.
Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari asserted that Hezbollah was responsible for the attack, labeling the group’s denial as misleading. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken echoed this sentiment, stating there were “every indication” Hezbollah fired the missile, affirming Israel’s right to defend itself against terrorism.
Lebanon now braces for potential Israeli retaliation.
Hezbollah’s assaults began on October 8, following the deadly Hamas attack on Israel, which the group justified as support for Palestinians in Gaza. Since then, over 450 lives have been lost in Lebanon, with the vast majority being Hezbollah combatants and around 100 civilians. In Israel, the death toll includes 23 civilians and at least 17 soldiers.
Most Israeli attacks have targeted southern Lebanon, resulting in widespread destruction in various villages. An escalation of Israeli operations in previously untouched areas, such as parts of Beirut, could lead to unpredictable consequences in the ongoing conflict.
Hezbollah is regarded as a more formidable adversary than Hamas, reportedly amassing an arsenal of around 150,000 rockets capable of overwhelming Israeli air defense systems, including precision-guided missiles that can reach deep into Israeli territory.
Israeli government officials have condemned Hezbollah’s actions, with growing public pressure to take decisive action and facilitate the return of displaced residents to northern communities. While the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue operations against Hamas in Gaza, they are also prepared to launch a potential offensive against Hezbollah, though specifics remain uncertain.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has emphasized that the group does not seek an all-out war with Israel but is prepared should the conflict escalates. He previously indicated that Hezbollah has only deployed a fraction of its military capabilities, warning that any war would be fought without constraints or rules. A significant military operation against Hezbollah could further involve other Iranian-backed militias in the region.
A full-scale war could have dire consequences, particularly for Lebanon, which is already grappling with a prolonged crisis. With approximately 80% of its population living in poverty and a paralyzed political system, Lebanon’s government has limited control over Hezbollah, which is classified as a terrorist organization by many countries.
Nevertheless, escalation is not inevitable. Diplomatic efforts continue to prevent a major conflict, with Lebanese officials urging Hezbollah to refrain from retaliation. Israeli foreign ministry representatives emphasized that adhering to United Nations Resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of armed groups in southern Lebanon, is essential in avoiding further hostilities.
Now is considered a crucial moment for diplomatic intervention to prevent an all-out war.
