The Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii has reported a record rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, registering an increase of 3.58 parts per million (ppm) in 2024. This marks the highest spike since monitoring began in 1958.
Climate experts have expressed concerns about this significant increase, attributing it to elevated CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, compounded by extreme wildfires exacerbated by rising global temperatures and the El Niño phenomenon.
Forecasters predict that atmospheric CO2 levels at Mauna Loa will rise by an estimated 2.26 ppm this year, albeit with a margin of error of 0.56 ppm. While this figure is lower than the previous year’s record, it still surpasses the necessary trajectory to maintain global warming below 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels.
Experts describe this increase as detrimental to efforts to curb climate change, with some suggesting that the probability of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is rapidly diminishing.
Carbon dioxide levels are critical indicators of climate change, driving both immediate and long-term temperature increases. Mauna Loa has been a key location for tracking these levels due to its extensive historical data and remote location, which minimizes interference from local emissions.
Advanced satellite technology now allows for direct measurement of global CO2 levels, which increased by 2.9 ppm in 2024. This substantial rise—one of the largest since satellite measurements began—signals a rebound in emissions following pandemic-related reductions, coupled with fluctuations in natural carbon absorption capabilities.
Concern remains that as the planet continues to warm, the natural systems that absorb excess CO2 may become less effective. Analysts caution that the dramatic increase in CO2 at Mauna Loa is partially driven by an uptick in wildfire activity in the northern hemisphere, which has contributed significantly to global CO2 levels.
While it appears increasingly likely that the world will surpass the 1.5°C climate target, experts maintain that setting such ambitious goals was vital for inspiring climate action. The acknowledgment of challenges in achieving this target underscores the need for continued efforts to combat climate change.
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