The price of Toncoin has surged by 45% from its monthly low, following Pavel Durov’s release from French custody after several months.
On Saturday, Toncoin (TON) reached a peak of $3.6240, marking its highest value since February 24 and elevating its market capitalization to over $8.4 billion.
Durov’s Release from France
This price increase coincides with a broader recovery in cryptocurrency markets and the return of Durov’s passport by French officials, enabling him to leave the country. Durov was arrested in 2024 and faced multiple allegations, including involvement in an online platform linked to illegal transactions and accusations of drug trafficking and money laundering.
In the wake of his arrest, support from the crypto community surged, rallying in defense of the entrepreneur.
Despite the recent price spike, experts warn that the Toncoin rally may not be sustainable due to weak on-chain metrics. Recent data indicates that Toncoin’s inflation rate has climbed to 0.40%, up from 0.33% in October, attributed to a total supply exceeding 5.124 billion. Additionally, transactions per day have plummeted from nearly 20 million to just 2.15 million since September of last year.
Active wallets on the Ton Blockchain continue to decline, and the total value locked in its DeFi ecosystem has dwindled to $180 million, down from around $800 million a few months prior. STON.fi, the leading decentralized exchange (DEX) on the network, has captured only $7.1 million in trading volume over the last 24 hours.
Many tokens within the TON ecosystem, such as Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) and Catizen (CATI), have seen significant declines, wiping out billions in market value. The potential for Toncoin’s price to retract exists as investors may react to Durov’s release by selling. Historically, traders tend to overreact to significant news events, often leading to price corrections shortly thereafter.
Toncoin Price Analysis
The daily chart reveals that Toncoin rebounded after reaching a low of $2.3650 earlier this month. It hit a high of $3.50, aligning with the 50-day moving average, indicating strong resistance ahead.
Furthermore, Toncoin faces additional resistance at the stop and reverse point of the Murrey Math Lines. As the excitement surrounding Durov’s release wanes, the token is likely to resume its downtrend and could fall below the $3 mark.
