TAIPEI, Taiwan — As U.S. presidential candidates articulate their visions for the coming years, Taiwan is closely evaluating the potential implications of American policy on its future. Located approximately 100 miles from China, which asserts claims over the island and has issued repeated invasion threats, Taiwan’s geopolitical situation is precarious.
Despite not being officially recognized as a sovereign nation by most countries, Taiwan’s partnership with the U.S., established in 1979, is vital for its security and diplomatic interests.
Here’s what Taiwan is focusing on in the context of the upcoming U.S. election:
Taiwan Seeks Security Guarantees
While the U.S. maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding Taiwan, U.S. legislation mandates support for the island’s self-defense. Recently, Washington has bolstered military sales to Taipei significantly.
Amid escalating debates on U.S. military support for Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, skepticism is growing among Taiwanese citizens regarding the reliability of the U.S. as a security partner.
A recent survey indicated that only about 25% of the 1,500 adults polled in Taiwan consider the U.S. a trustworthy ally. However, approximately 55% expressed confidence that the U.S. would support Taiwan in a conflict, regardless of the election outcome.
“What they want to know is whether the U.S. will provide explicit commitments to Taiwan’s defense, such as direct military intervention, rather than merely sending weapons or diplomatic signals,” said a diplomacy expert.
Taiwan Aims to Maintain Semiconductor Dominance
As a global leader in semiconductor manufacturing, including the renowned TSMC, Taiwan is essential to the international economy. The island is projected to produce approximately $150 billion worth of semiconductors this year, underlining its economic importance.
Taiwan is highly attentive to how U.S. policies under the next president will affect its technological rivalry with China. The U.S. has implemented strict export controls that could impact Taiwanese chipmakers.
Under the current administration, the U.S. has heavily subsidized new semiconductor facilities domestically, leading TSMC to establish several new factories in Arizona to benefit from these incentives. This move has sparked debate within Taiwan, with some arguing it could undermine the local chip industry.
Critically, former President Donald Trump has hinted at possible retaliatory actions against Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, claiming it has adversely affected U.S. interests.
Taiwan Desires a Stable Political Ally
The support for the U.S. Republican Party surged in Taiwan following Trump’s presidential election, as he broke with protocol to communicate directly with Taiwan’s then-President. However, recent campaign comments have caused this support to wane.
Trump’s remarks about Taiwan lacking contributions to U.S. security have elicited strong responses, including assertions from Taiwan’s leadership that they are committed to enhancing their defense capabilities.
The latest survey results show a preference for Biden among respondents, but a substantial portion remain undecided about who the next U.S. president should be, indicating ambivalence towards both political parties’ policies concerning Taiwan.
Ultimately, Taiwan is navigating a complex political landscape, striving for clarity in its relationship with the U.S. as the geopolitical climate evolves.
