The protests in Mongolia demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai have now entered their 13th day. This movement, sparked by allegations of familial corruption, highlights deep-seated systemic issues, including entrenched corruption, significant economic inequalities, and dire environmental challenges. These intertwined factors are reshaping the nation’s political landscape, driving immense public dissatisfaction.
Corruption Messes With Public Trust
The lavish lifestyle of Temuulen, son of Oyun-Erdene, amidst widespread poverty, ignited outrage. His expulsion from Harvard due to corruption investigations and his girlfriend’s extravagant displays on social media became symbols of elite privilege, fueling protests. Despite the Prime Minister’s attempts to label the backlash a “smear campaign,” trust in the government has eroded, with over 58,000 signatures gathered on a petition for the Prime Minister’s resignation. Hundreds of protesters in Ulaanbaatar voiced their discontent and lack of faith in the ruling authorities.
The political fallout is evident. The ruling coalition, comprising the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), the Democratic Party, and the HUN Party, has collapsed less than a year after its formation. The MPP excluded the Democratic Party from the coalition on May 21 for allegedly breaching the alliance agreement. Oyun-Erdene’s prior commitment to resign if the coalition fell apart has raised expectations for early elections.
Moreover, the Democratic Party’s unclear position alongside protesters, who largely reject party affiliation, underscores their lack of a coherent governance strategy. Many citizens express skepticism regarding the opposition’s capability to address systemic issues effectively.
Underlying Tensions: Systemic Failures Amplifying Discontent
The $11-plus billion coal theft scandal from 2022 unveiled the extensive corruption involving high-ranking officials and interest groups misappropriating national resources. The Independent Anti-Corruption Agency has confirmed collusion at high levels, revealing a failure of governance. The incident reflects a concerning trend of Mongolian elites operating with little accountability.
The situation exemplifies the misuse of national resources by the elite, bringing into focus the deep-rooted corruption within public institutions.
Under Oyun-Erdene’s government, Mongolia’s standing in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index has deteriorated, indicating that anti-corruption efforts have been ineffective. Protesters believe the current scandal involving Oyun-Erdene’s family is a symptom of longstanding issues, demanding not merely his resignation but significant reforms to eradicate the culture of privilege.
Mongolia’s economy heavily relies on mining, accounting for over 80 percent of exports, creating stark wealth disparities; a Gini coefficient of 0.32 in 2019 marked one of the highest inequalities globally. While elites monopolize resource profits, a significant portion of the population lives in poverty. According to World Bank data, the national poverty rate was 27.8 percent in 2020, jumping to 38.3 percent with the international poverty standard (daily income of $5.50).
Inflation surged to 9 percent in 2024, exacerbating challenges for youth struggling with basic expenses like housing and education amid increasing unemployment. Many young Mongolians feel their efforts yield little reward, further fueling the protest movement’s demand for economic justice.
The unrest also highlights the fragility of Mongolia’s government. Since democratization in 1990, the nation has experienced 20 government crises. Historical patterns of alliance disintegration and one-party dominance make the future of its democratic norms precarious. The MPP, traditionally centralizing power, exacerbates concerns over diminishing opposition voices, complicating governance.
These protests have linked environmental degradation with political corruption, with air pollution levels in Ulaanbaatar reaching alarming highs. Winter concentrations of PM2.5 pollution soared to 687 micrograms per cubic meter—well above World Health Organization standards—causing serious health issues among vulnerable populations. Efforts to address pollution have fallen short, indicating a governance failure that threatens the populace’s well-being.
For protesters, these interrelated issues underscore the urgent need for systemic change.
Consequences and Future Directions
The dismantling of the coalition government has created a leadership vacuum, with a Cabinet reshuffle likely on the horizon. Oyun-Erdene may resign as early as next week, intensifying calls for early elections. However, partisan maneuvering may perpetuate instability, as the opposition must navigate the balancing act of populism and effective policy-making, while the MPP faces mounting pressure for legitimate anti-corruption efforts.
Mongolia’s resource-dependent economy could face challenges amid the political turmoil, necessitating swift stabilization measures. The protests demonstrate a collective demand for accountability. Without addressing core systemic issues, solutions may only offer temporary respite, potentially leading to long-term social unrest.
Mongolia’s exports, predominantly coal to China, underscore its vulnerability amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics. The 2022 coal scandal not only impacted national revenues but also strained bilateral relationships. As global powers watch closely, Mongolia stands at a crossroads, with protests epitomizing a broader referendum on governance, corruption, inequality, political instability, and environmental deterioration.
Addressing this crisis requires substantial reform—eliminating impunity, establishing equitable wealth distribution, and committing to environmental sustainability. The nation’s ability to convert dissatisfaction into lasting change will define its democratic future.
