Ukraine hopes its incursion into Russia changes outcome of war

“All wars end with negotiations. It’s not the soldiers in the trenches who decide when.”

Arni, who enlisted in the Ukrainian army in 2022 to defend his nation, now expresses a renewed focus on achieving “peace.”

“No one likes war; we want it to end,” he states, standing beside his camouflaged vehicle.

Troops stationed near the Russian border share a common goal: to conclude the invasion under terms they can accept.

While survival remains paramount, a palpable sense of striving for a conclusion guides their efforts.

“For Ukraine and our people, we will hold our ground until the end,” Arni affirms.

As of August 6, Ukraine’s primary aim transformed from liberating territories to countering Russian forces that had encroached since 2014.

Despite slow progress, territory losses have been a stark reality, with Moscow gaining ground in recent months.

However, an unexpected counter-offensive into Russia’s Kursk region marks a strategic pivot, as Ukrainian soldiers lead this bold maneuver.

“This operation was both bold and successful,” comments Serhii Kuzan, chairman of a security think tank in Ukraine.

Now, Kyiv emphasizes the significance of its counter-offensive, showcasing images of troops distributing aid while removing Russian flags.

“This action alters the narrative,” explains Alina Frolova, security expert and former deputy defense minister of Ukraine. “A situation of gradual territory loss is untenable.”

“Ukraine’s strategic positioning has shifted remarkably.”

Unlike the initial invasion, Kyiv’s current intention is not to capture Russian territory but to achieve its goals through various means.

“This offensive aims to enhance the protection of Sumy,” explains Kuzan, noting that the border remains a critical frontline.

Since summer began, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported over 2,000 strikes on the Sumy region from Kursk, including 250 glide bomb attacks.

With concerns about a potential Russian cross-border strike, pushing back enemy forces is expected to bolster overall defense for Ukraine.

“Captured Russian city Sudzha offers a tactical advantage. We control approach routes, placing our adversaries in a weakened position,” Kuzan adds.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has disrupted Russian supply lines, seizing key roads and destroying strategic infrastructure.

Which leads to the next critical aspect:

“The main objective of this operation is to divert Russia’s focus from occupied Ukrainian territories,” states Ivan Stupak, a former SBU agent.

Reports suggest this diversion is succeeding, yet Russian advances, particularly towards Pokrovsk, continue unabated.

“Troops are being redeployed from various regions, including Kherson, Kharkiv, and Donetsk,” Stupak notes, estimating that around 10,000 personnel are being redirected, primarily from other areas of Russia.

President Zelensky describes Ukraine’s accumulation of captured Russian soldiers as a potential bargaining tool.

Historically, momentum in conflict has led Ukraine to capture more soldiers, facilitating easier negotiations for their own POWs’ release.

The Kursk offensive has followed this pattern, with reports of hundreds of captured Russian troops, visible surrender, and their return under escort.

“Moscow is now initiating talks over prisoner exchanges,” states Kuzan. “We are no longer in a position where we must rely on external nations to secure the return of our prisoners.”

This factor is crucial for Kyiv.

Within the Kursk region, civilian sentiments reflect horror and anger over the Ukrainian assault, provoking mass evacuations and public criticism of authorities.

On the political front, Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen grappling with the implications of the Ukrainian offensive during briefings with his security team.

Additionally, the military impact cannot be overlooked.

“The significance of this Ukrainian incursion could be substantial,” concludes Frolova. “Using highly skilled troops was a strategic decision.”

If Ukraine does not intend to hold onto recently captured Russian territories long-term, its strategy hinges on retaining them long enough to leverage their return for lost Ukrainian land.

This remains a significant gamble.

In periods of slowed combat, conditions typically favor Russia due to its numerical superiority. Misdirection and surprise have historically favored Ukraine.

“In a balanced conflict, our chances against Russia are minimal,” Frolova warns. “We must adopt asymmetrical tactics.”

Challenges will arise as advances in the Kursk region continue, pressing Kyiv to make tough decisions.

However, as long as progress is being made, Kuzan emphasizes the tactical benefit. “A daily advance of 1-3 km is typical for swapping frontline units without compromising reserves, while Russian advances in Donbas average only 400m,” he explains. “Our pace in Kursk significantly outstrips the enemy’s.”

Despite ongoing Russian advances elsewhere in Ukraine, the likelihood of Ukraine retracting from its offensive against Russia remains slim; the commitment has been established.

Initially denouncing the offensive as a “terrorist attack,” Putin has since refrained from commenting extensively, despite its relevance to his narrative surrounding Russia’s defensive objectives.

There are indications he may wish to mitigate alarm within the Kursk region and avoid the perception of losing military control.

As demonstrated in past military crises, Putin’s responses can be slow, allowing Ukraine room for opportunity.

Ukraine’s hope is that this trend continues.