The U.S. House of Representatives has rejected a funding measure aligned with Donald Trump’s agenda, significantly increasing the likelihood of a government shutdown this weekend.
A modified spending plan fell short of the required two-thirds majority, with 38 Republicans voting against it on Thursday night, contradicting the stance of the president-elect.
Trump had previously derailed a bipartisan funding deal that House Republican leadership had negotiated with Democrats, following sharp criticism from tech billionaire Elon Musk.
The bill was defeated by a vote of 174 to 235. Following the failure, Speaker Johnson indicated he would seek an alternative solution before government funding runs out at midnight on Friday.
The proposal supported by Trump aimed to link government funding to a two-year suspension of the federal debt limit, which controls how much the government is allowed to borrow.
Opposition from Republican members stemmed from their reluctance to increase government spending, while Democrats opposed it on the grounds that the additional borrowing would primarily benefit the wealthy through tax cuts.
Here are five crucial points regarding the potential government shutdown:
1. The Path to Today
This impending government shutdown can be traced back to September’s budget deadline. Johnson’s failed attempt to pass a six-month funding extension was primarily blocked by Democrats, who objected to an attached provision requiring proof of citizenship for voting.
Instead, Congress reached a bipartisan deal for a minimal bill to fund the government until December 20.
Johnson assured Republicans that there would not be a complex spending bill voted on before the holiday recess. However, when leaders presented the latest spending bill three days before break, it contained 1,547 pages of provisions.
The bill aimed to extend government funding until March 14, which is nearly three months after Trump is expected to assume office again.
The legislation included over $110 billion in emergency disaster relief, $30 billion in agricultural aid, the first pay raise for lawmakers in 14 years, federal funds for rebuilding a collapsed bridge in Baltimore, healthcare reforms, and efforts to prevent deceptive advertising in hotels and event venues.
Johnson faced backlash from some Republicans who criticized him for departing from a more straightforward spending proposal, particularly objecting to left-leaning elements added to appease Democrats. In defense, Johnson pointed to unavoidable “acts of God” as justification for the additional provisions.
2. Trump and Musk Influence Spending Deal
Growing opposition to Johnson’s spending proposal emerged by Wednesday.
Musk, whom Trump has enlisted to identify spending cuts, strongly campaigned against the deal through various statements, labeling it “criminal” while also circulating inaccuracies.
Musk encouraged lawmakers, stating, “Any representative voting for this excessive spending bill should be voted out in two years.”
Following Musk’s fervent opposition, Trump and incoming vice-president JD Vance publicly opposed Johnson’s proposal, advocating for a streamlined version without Democratic provisions while also insisting on raising or eliminating the debt ceiling and limiting funding discussions to temporary measures and disaster relief. They categorized anything beyond that as a “betrayal of our country.”
3. Next Steps
On Thursday, Johnson and House Republicans introduced a streamlined version of the legislation, which ultimately failed in that evening’s vote. The path forward remains uncertain.
With lawmakers unlikely to cast another vote on Thursday, they are expected to reconvene Friday morning, facing a ticking clock with less than 24 hours before a potential shutdown.
The partisan blame game has begun in earnest. After the defeat of the Thursday bill, Johnson expressed disappointment over the unified Democratic opposition.
He labeled it “irresponsible” for a shutdown risk over pre-agreed issues.
To find a resolution, Johnson may require Democratic support, particularly as divisions within his party have become evident this week.
However, Democrats are likely to resist assisting Johnson in recovering their bipartisan agreement, holding him accountable for its breakdown.
“You break the bipartisan agreement, you own the consequences,” stated Democratic leadership.
Meanwhile, some Democrats have playfully mocked Republicans for appearing influenced by Musk, with one representative jesting that Musk had effectively taken the role of “President” in this context.
Ultimately, Johnson must navigate a way to gain bipartisan approval as frustration mounts within his ranks.
Time remains critical, as these discussions typically span weeks.
4. Consequences of a Government Shutdown
Federal agencies depend on annual appropriations to operate. Without the passage of the 12 necessary spending bills, these agencies must suspend non-essential duties.
However, essential services—such as border security, healthcare, law enforcement, and air traffic control—will continue functioning.
Many federal employees, however, may go unpaid during this time.
While Social Security and Medicare benefits will be distributed, other functions like benefit verification and card issuance may halt. Although funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program is mandatory, government shutdowns may incur delays for various assistance programs.
Moreover, certain agencies will cease operations entirely, leading to halted food safety inspections by the FDA, suspensions of inspections by the EPA, and closures of National Parks to the public.
5. Implications for Republicans
This scenario presents a significant test of Trump’s sway over current Republican lawmakers, with many expressing hesitancy during Thursday’s vote.
It also casts doubt on Speaker Johnson’s future as House elections approach in just 15 days, raising questions about his previously secure position.
Facing backlash from Trump and Musk, Johnson’s approach to government funding is now under intense scrutiny from within his party.
Some Republican members have voiced intentions to block Johnson’s bid to retain the speakership, a precarious situation considering the party’s slim majority of just five seats next term.
The threat to Johnson is substantial, reflecting the party’s recent tumultuous history.
In January 2023, Kevin McCarthy faced a protracted battle with 15 rounds of ballots to secure the speakership, only to be ousted less than a year later due to perceived failures in spending cuts and bipartisan agreements.
