Toncoin (TON) continues to struggle in a bear market, approaching the potential formation of a death cross pattern, despite robust on-chain metrics.
As of September 30, Toncoin was trading at $5.81, a steep decline of over 30% from its year-to-date peak.
On-Chain Metrics Showcase Growth
Recent data reveals a remarkable increase in on-chain activated wallets, now exceeding 20.8 million, significantly up from January’s low of 1.1 million.
Additionally, the daily burning of Toncoins has surged to a year-to-date high of almost 39,000, coinciding with a sharp decrease in minted Toncoins, which has fallen to 39,000 from monthly highs above 50,000.
Declining Influence in DeFi
The decline in Toncoin’s price is attributed to its decreasing influence in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, where the total value locked has plummeted from over $765 million in July to $427 million.
Once a top ten player in the DeFi landscape, Toncoin has now fallen to the 20th position, overtaken by smaller chains like Core, Mode, Mantle, and Linea.
The recent arrest of Pavel Durov in France and the underwhelming performance of its tap-to-earn tokens have also contributed to Toncoin’s decline. Notably, Hamster Kombat, which launched its airdrop last week, has seen a nearly 60% drop from its peak. Similarly, Notcoin (NOT) has decreased by 71%, while Catizen (CATI) has retracted by 50% from their all-time highs. Most recently launched tap-to-earn tokens have also reached disappointing lows.
Furthermore, Toncoin’s futures open interest fell to $260 million on September 30, down from a year-to-date high of over $360 million. This represents the lowest level since September 12, signaling decreasing demand.
Toncoin Price Analysis
Toncoin has seen a significant 30% drop from its annual high, with the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages nearing a death cross formation. Historically, such a pattern, last observed in May of the previous year, led to declines exceeding 50%.
Additionally, Toncoin has developed a head and shoulders pattern and a rounded top pattern. It is currently positioned below the first support level of the Andrew’s pitchfork tool as well as the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.
If Toncoin does not manage to rise above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a bearish breakout could lead to the next significant support level at $4.45, marking its lowest point in September.
