The ruling Pheu Thai Party is intensifying efforts to bolster its diminishing popularity as the next general election approaches, just over three years away. However, industry analysts question whether these strategies will be effective.
There are growing concerns about the Bhumjaithai Party’s quick ascent, positioning itself as a significant contender to Pheu Thai. Led by Anutin Charnvirakul, Bhumjaithai is emerging as a formidable rival, with the potential to surpass Pheu Thai and become the second-largest political force in Thailand.
The forthcoming election may see the Bhumjaithai Party challenge the primary opposition, the Move Forward Party (MFP), which previously won the last election and represents the liberal democratic front. This scenario poses a serious threat to Pheu Thai’s dominance, as it struggles to regain lost ground, according to political analysts.
Pheu Thai’s strategy to regain popularity seems insufficient against the backdrop of declining poll numbers and Pheu Thai’s previous successes. The party is actively reconnecting with influential local politicians in regions where it has historically enjoyed strong voter support, banking on significant wins in the constituency system during the upcoming polls.
The election will see 400 constituency seats and 100 party-list seats contested. Analysts estimate that Pheu Thai must secure at least 200 constituency seats and 50 party-list seats to achieve a parliamentary majority.
However, Pheu Thai faces challenges, including the MFP’s soaring approval ratings, Bhumjaithai’s savvy political maneuvers, and the controversial treatment of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra by the justice system.
A recent quarterly poll revealed a continued decline in Pheu Thai’s popularity by the end of June, while the MFP’s ratings surged. The poll showed only 12% of voters backing Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, down from 17% previously, while Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s ratings dipped to 4.8%.
In contrast, MFP’s chief adviser Pita Limjaroenrat consistently led with a 45% approval rating. Analysts noted that Pheu Thai’s popularity decline is linked to its lack of impactful policies to revive the economy, with a delayed flagship digital wallet initiative drawing criticism.
As Pheu Thai struggles to implement urgent economic reforms, voters increasingly gravitate toward the MFP, which benefits from its status as a new player without a legacy of governmental failures.
Moreover, Thaksin’s lack of imprisonment upon returning from exile has sparked discontent among voters. Critics argue that he should demonstrate gratitude by serving his sentence, viewing his avoidance of incarceration as disrespectful to the royal pardon.
Bhumjaithai, meanwhile, faces accusations of engaging in covert campaigns that led to its supporters’ success in the Senate elections. The party denies any wrongdoing but analysts point to the strong lobbying influence of Bhumjaithai in these elections.
Looking ahead, Bhumjaithai is expected to strengthen its position leading up to the election, potentially garnering support from conservative groups. This development could challenge Pheu Thai, currently portrayed as a leading neo-conservative party, in the upcoming political landscape.
Political Landscape Shifts as MFP Faces Legal Challenges
Political analysts are closely watching the forthcoming Constitutional Court ruling on the Move Forward Party (MFP), with some predicting a turbulent future for the party.
The court is set to deliver its verdict in response to a petition from the Election Commission regarding allegations that the MFP violated laws concerning attempts to amend the lese majeste law.
The EC is seeking the MFP’s dissolution, arguing that its actions threaten the constitutional monarchy. The MFP contends that its campaigning reflects lawful exercises of free expression.
Despite the MFP’s defenses, analysts believe the party’s chances of avoiding dissolution are slim. Previous experiences with disbanded parties, such as the Future Forward Party (FFP), shed light on the potential consequences of such a ruling.
Under the current political landscape, Pheu Thai, which has a stable majority in the House, is not reliant on defectors or the support of MFP MPs, suggesting that the party dynamics may shift significantly if the MFP faces dissolution.
Even if the MFP is disbanded, there is speculation that its members will quickly regroup under a new party, potentially emerging stronger in the next election.
Prominent analysts believe new leadership within the MFP could invigorate its future, with capable individuals positioned to attract more votes and capture a greater share of seats in upcoming elections.
