During the COP26 climate negotiations in Glasgow, a pivotal phrase emerged: “keep 1.5°C alive.” This slogan, embraced by a diverse array of voices from politicians to climate experts, sought to uphold the ambitious target established in the Paris Agreement. However, evidence suggests that this goal was likely unattainable all along, serving more as a hollow phrase than a realistic objective.
In 2022, experts began to express concerns about the divergence between public sentiment and scientific data. Many scientists found themselves in a dilemma, as the physical science still indicated that limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels was theoretically achievable. Yet, the vast political and social changes needed to support this target were deemed unrealistic.
Recent research has added weight to the argument that the 1.5°C goal is increasingly out of reach. For the first time, researchers are indicating that a 1.6°C increase may be the most optimistic scenario, with potentially higher temperatures becoming more likely. This shift prompts a critical question for policymakers: will they recognize that mere slogans are insufficient for genuine climate action? Commitment to keeping any temperature goal “alive” is futile without concrete steps to achieve net-zero emissions.
The term “net zero” is gradually losing its clarity, often misconstrued to represent policies that oppose environmental initiatives. This is alarming, considering that extreme temperature events contribute to a self-perpetuating cycle of emissions, which only a net-zero energy system can disrupt. To genuinely limit warming, it is imperative that we learn from past slogans like “keep 1.5°C alive” and ensure that “net zero” retains its intended significance.
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