The government of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is poised to remain in power for the foreseeable future, with approximately three years left in its term, as coalition parties appear unprepared for an early election, according to insights from political analysts.
Political expert Abhisit Vejjajiva emphasized that the coalition parties are still attempting to demonstrate their worthiness to voters. However, he pointed out that the public’s diminishing trust in the Pheu Thai Party-led government poses a significant challenge. This situation may worsen with any emerging negative situations, potentially escalating into a crisis.
When asked about the possibility of Ms. Paetongtarn facing removal through military intervention, similar to her father and aunt, Abhisit noted that her family name alone does not warrant such actions, but her governance style could make a difference. “None of us wants to see a coup situation again,” he remarked, urging the government to address national issues in a morally sound manner for the benefit of all parties.
Despite being a long-standing rival of the Pheu Thai Party, Abhisit acknowledged the party’s past achievements which should have been leveraged for its development. “It’s disappointing that they haven’t capitalized on their successes to advance the party,” he added.
Furthermore, he cautioned that while Thaksin Shinawatra’s influence might bolster confidence among supporters, there remains a risk of repeating past errors that could lead to similar downfalls.
Independent political analyst Thawisan Lonanurak highlighted significant challenges awaiting the new PM, particularly the prolonged scrutiny of the 36 new cabinet ministers. He warned that the disqualification of even a single minister could jeopardize the government’s stability, citing the recent ousting of former prime minister Srettha Thavisin over ethical violations.
Thawisan also criticized the qualifications of the newly appointed ministers, suggesting that many were chosen based on party quotas rather than expertise. “It is concerning when unsuitable candidates are placed in critical positions, leading to public disillusionment,” he stated.
The involvement of certain factions within political parties in the coalition could undermine party integrity. This trend, if unchecked, may encourage further negotiations among party members, complicating governance potential.
The future performance of the government will play a crucial role in determining not only the duration of the coalition’s term but also the Pheu Thai Party’s prospects in the upcoming national elections. Political analysts caution that if economic conditions do not improve by the end of this year, the government could face rapid declines in support.
While Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, leader of the ousted Palang Pracharath Party, may not pose immediate threats, observers suggest that any failures in government performance could invite challenges to Paetongtarn’s leadership, indicating that political dynamics could shift should her administration falter.
