Adding a citizenship question to the U.S. Census may significantly decrease participation among non-U.S. citizens, particularly individuals from Latin American countries, as highlighted by recent research. This study emerges amid growing efforts by Republican lawmakers in Congress to include such a question in the upcoming census.
Researchers from the U.S. Census Bureau and the University of Kansas found that noncitizens without Social Security numbers are less likely to complete the census or may provide incomplete responses when faced with a citizenship question. This trend raises concerns about the potential for undercounting specific populations.
Interestingly, the study notes that certain demographics, such as U.S.-born Hispanic residents and noncitizens from regions outside Latin America, showed less sensitivity to the inclusion of a citizenship question.
The push for a citizenship question aligns with Republican aspirations to explicitly exclude noncitizens from the census count, influencing political representation and federal funding distribution—an approach that some argue contradicts the 14th Amendment, which mandates that all individuals be counted in the census.
In a recent House session, a bill was passed that seeks to exclude noncitizens from census data used for congressional representation. However, the Democratic-controlled Senate is expected to challenge this initiative. Further discussions in the coming weeks may address appropriations bills with similar language pursuing to exclude undocumented individuals from political district redrawings.
Critics, such as Democratic Representative Grace Meng, deem these initiatives extreme, arguing they compromise the census’s accuracy. She warned that ignoring noncitizens in communities would hinder the Census Bureau’s effectiveness and misallocate resources.
Conversely, Republican Representative Andrew Clyde contends that counting noncitizens incentivizes local governments to attract them, thus obstructing citizens’ ability to shape their representation.
The 2030 Census remains pivotal, as accurate counts influence the distribution of congressional seats and the allocation of $2.8 trillion in federal funds annually.
The latest study revisits prior research conducted during a 2019 trial survey surrounding the 2020 Census, where concerns over participation rates among Hispanic and immigrant communities were prevalent. The previous attempt to add a citizenship question faced opposition, culminating in a Supreme Court ruling that blocked its inclusion.
The 2019 trial involved distributing questionnaires to households, with half containing a citizenship question and the other half without. While initial findings suggested no overall impact on response rates, deeper analysis revealed a likely detrimental effect in bilingual neighborhoods.
Our newest research emphasizes that the presence of a citizenship question correlates with heightened undercount rates among households with noncitizens. In 2020, marginalized groups—like Black individuals, Hispanics, and Native Alaskans—experienced notable undercounts, contrasting with the overcount of the non-Hispanic white and Asian populations.
The census not only gathers essential demographic data but also plays a vital role in shaping legislative representation and guiding federal spending priorities, making an accurate count imperative for equitable resource distribution.
