The recent by-election held on September 15 in Phitsanulok has sparked discussions on the potential trajectory of Thailand’s political landscape in the lead-up to the next general election, three years from now.
The main opposition People’s Party (PP) faced intense scrutiny as they battled to retain their foothold in a challenging political environment.
Having endured several setbacks in previous elections at both local and national levels, the PP found itself under pressure. The party struggled to secure the Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) chairman position in Ayutthaya prior to its dissolution on August 7. The position went to a rival with deep-rooted support in the region.
Nearby Pathum Thani also experienced a PAO chairman election shortly thereafter, where the PP’s predecessor, the Move Forward Party (MFP), opted not to field a candidate due to the competitive nature of the race involving representatives from the ruling Pheu Thai Party and a local political group aligned with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Following the disbandment of the MFP by the Constitutional Court, the PP emerged as its successor, absorbing its MPs.
The PP’s campaign in Ratchaburi, their first PAO chairman race, was marked by a determination to channel sentiments of resilience and vengeance after the MFP’s dissolution in early 2020.
High-profile party members, including former MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat and Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, actively participated in door-to-door voter outreach and campaign rallies.
Despite these efforts, the PP lost in the PAO election, leading the party to refocus on the crucial by-election in Phitsanulok.
This by-election held added significance, as it aimed to fill the vacancy left by Padipat Santipada, who lost his parliamentary seat due to a court ruling citing national security concerns.
The PP candidate, Nathachanon Chanaburanasak, faced off against rival Jadet Jantar from Pheu Thai in a highly competitive race but ultimately lost. Unofficial counts showed Jadet securing 37,209 votes against Nathachanon’s 30,640.
The turnout for this election was 54%, a notable decrease from previous elections, attributed to factors including fewer advance voting opportunities and registered voters living outside Phitsanulok.
Analysis indicated that while the PP maintained support in urban polling stations, they struggled to expand their influence beyond traditional bases. Continued underperformance ahead of the next election could hinder the PP’s ambition to secure over 250 seats, complicating their objectives and legislative goals, particularly in addressing sensitive issues like Section 112 of the Criminal Code.
The Path Forward for Charter Amendments
As discussions surrounding constitutional amendments continue, observers anticipate that efforts to revise the coup-era 2017 charter will face significant challenges.
The double majority requirement, necessary for referendum decisions, remains a point of contention and complicates attempts for constitutional reform. The recent Senate vote seeking to amend or retain this requirement suggests a resistance to change among ruling powers.
The Senate’s stance prioritizes maintaining the current system, potentially stalling any significant push for reforms that could reshape Thailand’s political framework.
The situation illustrates the complexities faced by political parties aiming to forge a united front for charter modifications, particularly in light of the Senate’s decisive influence in such matters.
According to analysts, without sufficient support in the Senate, political parties like the PP and Pheu Thai may find themselves limited in their ability to push forward with meaningful reforms.
As the political environment evolves, the implications of these dynamics will undoubtedly continue to shape Thailand’s governance and electoral processes leading into the future.
