Dar es Salaam: Hope for opposition parties to form a coalition against the ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) in the upcoming 2025 general elections hangs in the balance, with some comparing the effort to a camel passing through the eye of a needle.
However, ACT-Wazalendo emphasizes that before forming such a coalition, unity is essential to push for the establishment of an Independent Electoral Commission. Meanwhile, NCCR-Mageuzi recalls the betrayal experienced during the 2015 general elections.
Tanzania’s Political Parties Act of 2019 stipulates that coalition agreements among parties must be submitted to the Registrar of Political Parties approximately three months prior to the elections.
The likelihood of a successful coalition is considered slim, particularly for the four major parties: Chadema, NCCR-Mageuzi, ACT-Wazalendo, and CUF, as the law requires ratification through their respective general meetings.
Three main issues have been cited as potential obstacles to cooperation among the parties: lack of funds to hold general meetings, differing party stances, and the limited time available to realize this ambition.
Chadema’s Secretary-General, John Mnyika, stated that the party’s position will be revealed after leaders return from a week-long retreat. He indicated that the party’s long-held stance of “no reform, no election” remains unless there are legal system changes.
In 2015, NCCR-Mageuzi, Chadema, CUF, and the National League for Democracy (NLD) united under the umbrella of the Umoja wa Katiba Tanzania (Ukawa), established during the Constituent Assembly sessions in 2014. This coalition saw Edward Lowassa nominated as the presidential candidate, garnering nearly 40% of the votes against CCM’s John Magufuli.
Lowassa’s entry from CCM secured Ukawa 116 parliamentary seats during the 11th Parliament, marking a significant achievement for the opposition since the multi-party system began in 1992.
However, the current political landscape portrays challenges for unity, with political analyst Andrew Dawson suggesting that the distrust stemming from the previous Ukawa experience complicates potential alliances.
“Forming a coalition this year is akin to a camel passing through the eye of a needle. The parties don’t trust each other and suspicions abound that some members may secretly align with the ruling party,” he asserted.
NCCR-Mageuzi Reflects on Ukawa Experience
NCCR-Mageuzi’s Deputy Chairman, Joseph Selasini, stated that their party has never disregarded calls for cooperation in elections. However, he noted that significant decisions must involve party members and be debated at official meetings, adding that such discussions have yet to occur.
“The revised political parties law requires any coalition to be recognized by the Registrar’s office to determine the benefits for cooperating parties post-election,” Selasini explained.
He reiterated the pain of betrayal experienced during Ukawa, where agreements were frequently violated at local levels, leading to mistrust in potential future coalitions.
Despite these challenges, Selasini mentioned that with new leadership in Chadema under Tundu Lissu, there may be an opportunity for change, as the previous leadership had resisted cooperation with other parties.
Positions from Chadema, ACT-Wazalendo, and CUF
Issihaka Mchinjita, Vice Chairman of ACT-Wazalendo, expressed the party’s intent to form alliances with other opposition parties ahead of the 2025 general elections.
“We believe that discussions on how to collectively combat election malpractices should commence, especially in view of previous local elections and the general elections in 2020,” he stated, confirming that preliminary discussions with other opposition parties are already underway.
Mchinjita revealed that ACT-Wazalendo has reached out to other parties, including CUF, for collaborative efforts and is awaiting a suitable time to convene.
Chadema’s General Secretary, Mnyika, indicated that their party is currently focused on internal planning, with a firm stance to be shared post-retreat.
Similarly, CUF’s General Secretary, Husna Mohamed Abdallah, highlighted that any decision to collaborate will depend on the upcoming party committee meeting this month, where they will also address the partnership with other opposition parties.
Prof. Catherine Ndungo from Kenyatta University discussed the benefits of party coalitions in her analysis, stating they could enhance electoral support. She described coalitions as partnerships that maintain each party’s legal identity while collaboratively pursuing shared goals to enhance electoral successes and strengthen their political presence.
