The vast majority of climate policies implemented worldwide are proving ineffective at significantly reducing emissions, raising concerns that governments must intensify their efforts to identify effective strategies to combat climate change.
Research conducted by experts from the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change revealed that an evaluation of 1,500 climate policies enacted between 1998 and 2022 across 41 countries showed minimal impact on emissions reduction.
Using machine learning, researchers pinpointed instances where a country’s emissions decreased significantly compared to a control group, identifying 69 key reductions. By comparing these reductions with data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, they were able to link 63 of these cases to specific policy interventions occurring within a two-year timeframe.
While each of these 63 instances resulted in emissions reductions ranging from 0.6 billion to 1.8 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide, the overall findings indicate that many climate policies fall short of achieving substantial successes. According to the findings, the proliferation of policies does not necessarily translate to improved outcomes.
Several policies fail due to their narrow focus. For instance, subsidies aimed at promoting electric vehicle purchases have limited effectiveness because the majority of vehicles on the roads remain non-electric. In contrast, more effective measures included outright bans, such as prohibiting coal for electricity generation. However, the confluence of various measures complicates the assessment of their independent effectiveness.
Policymakers seeking a universal solution will find that no single approach works across all sectors. Pricing mechanisms, particularly those impacting profit-driven industries, show promise in reducing emissions. Yet, these strategies alone are insufficient; effective emission reductions emerge when regulations and subsidies are paired with price-based incentives like carbon pricing and energy taxes. Therefore, financial motivations play a critical role in driving reductions in emissions.
Experts emphasize the importance of identifying specific emissions reductions in particular sectors and countries to strategically address the emissions gap. While there are limitations in the OECD database due to inconsistent reporting standards, it remains a valuable resource for this research.
Researchers note that while identifying effective policy combinations is crucial, the study’s methodology may not fully encapsulate the multifaceted nature of policy effects. By focusing on emission outcomes and then retroactively assessing causal factors, this approach may overlook gradual changes over longer periods.
Despite reservations, the research indicates that the political landscape and public acceptance of policy measures play significant roles in their successful implementation. Acknowledging the challenges inherent in policymaking, researchers remain optimistic that well-designed policies can lead to substantial progress toward ambitious climate goals.
Topics:
- climate action/
- carbon emissions
