GENEVA, Switzerland – In the third quarter of 2024, global merchandise trade volume demonstrated positive momentum, rising by 1.1 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.3 percent year-on-year on a seasonally adjusted basis. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of consistent trade growth.
In comparison, the value of merchandise trade in current US dollars increased by 4.3 percent year-on-year in Q3, which is a notable improvement from the 1.8 percent increase observed in Q2 and the 1.4 percent decrease in Q1.
From January to September, trade volume experienced a growth of 2.4 percent relative to the same timeframe in 2023, slightly below the recent forecast of 2.7 percent for 2024. The merchandise trade value increased by 1.6 percent over the same period, suggesting a modest decline in the prices of traded goods (less than 1%).
The anticipated increase of 2.7 percent in world merchandise trade volume for 2024 remains achievable if Q4 continues on a similar growth trajectory as Q3. Recent data signals ongoing trade expansion through the year-end, though short-term trade prospects may be hindered by escalating global trade tensions.
Regional Trade Volume Performance
During the third quarter of 2024, trade volume growth was positive across most regions, with Europe being a notable exception.
The Commonwealth of Independent States led with a 5.4 percent quarter-on-quarter surge in exports, followed by North America with a 2.1 percent increase. Asia and the Middle East noted gains of 1.6 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. South and Central America and the Caribbean experienced modest growth at 0.2 percent, while African exports saw a negligible increase of 0.1 percent.
On the import side, the CIS region also achieved a 3.3 percent quarter-on-quarter rise, with Africa and North America following at 2.5 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. Asia reported a 2.0 percent increase, while the Middle East achieved a 1.0 percent gain. South and Central America had a modest import growth of just 0.6 percent during the same period.
Europe was the only region to experience declines in both export and import volume, with decreases of ‑0.2 percent and ‑0.3 percent, respectively, as the manufacturing sector faced ongoing challenges.
Throughout the first three quarters of 2024, Europe’s trade performance fell short of earlier projections. Year-on-year, European exports decreased by 1.8 percent, while imports dropped by 3.3 percent—worse than anticipated declines.
Trade in Value Terms
Recent data indicates strong growth in trade values for most Asian and Latin American nations, with certain exceptions noted.
Argentina recorded a notable 17 percent rise in export shipments, despite uncertainty surrounding its economic reforms. Likewise, Vietnam showcased robust export growth at 15 percent compared to the previous year, while larger economies such as China and the United States saw more modest gains of 5 percent and 3 percent, respectively. In contrast, extra-EU exports edged up by just 1 percent, with Japan and the United Kingdom experiencing declines of 2 percent and 5 percent.
Vietnam also led in import growth, reflecting a 17 percent year-on-year increase, complemented by substantial increases in imports from Malaysia (13%), Chinese Taipei (9%), and Singapore (7%). The United States saw a 5 percent rise in imports, while China’s imports grew by only 2 percent. Conversely, extra-EU imports decreased by 5 percent, with Japan’s imports showing a significant decline of 6 percent. Argentina faced the sharpest decline in imports, plummeting 22 percent amid ongoing economic turmoil.
It is important to note that quarterly and monthly statistics are estimates at the time of publication and may be subject to revisions. Comprehensive annual trade data and visualizations are available for further insights.
