Since October, near-daily cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah, the powerful Iranian-backed militia and political movement in Lebanon, have resulted in hundreds of deaths and forced tens of thousands from their homes on both sides. These actions have raised concerns that the relatively contained violence could escalate into a full-blown conflict.
While there have been efforts to avoid a major confrontation, the risk of miscalculation remains high. Saturday’s attack on the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights might have been such an instance. Israel accuses Hezbollah of carrying out the strike on a football pitch, killing at least 12 people, including children. This attack is the deadliest in the current hostilities, prompting Israel to vow retaliation.
“Israel will not overlook this murderous attack,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated, according to a release from his office. “Hezbollah will pay a heavy price which it has not paid up to now.” Hezbollah, however, denies involvement in the attack.
Prior to understanding the full extent of the strike, Hezbollah claimed to have targeted the Hermon Brigade with an Iranian-made Falaq missile. This base, located about 3 km (two miles) from the explosion site, raises the possibility that the missile missed its intended target.
Daniel Hagari, an Israeli military spokesman, said intelligence indicates Hezbollah in Lebanon was responsible, calling the group’s denial “a lie.” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also stated that “every indication” suggests Hezbollah fired the missile, reaffirming the US’s support for “Israel’s right to defend its citizens from terrorist attacks.”
Lebanon now awaits a potential significant Israeli response.
Hezbollah’s strikes began on October 8, the day after a deadly Hamas attack on Israel, with the group expressing support for Palestinians in Gaza. Reports indicate over 450 people have been killed in Lebanon, including about 350 Hezbollah fighters and at least 100 civilians. In Israel, 23 civilians and at least 17 soldiers have died.
Israeli attacks have primarily targeted southern Lebanon and the eastern Bekaa Valley, areas where Hezbollah operates. An Israeli campaign extending to previously untouched areas, such as parts of Beirut, could mark a dangerous escalation in the conflict.
Hezbollah, considered more formidable than Hamas, has been preparing for a major conflict with Israel since their last significant clash in 2006, which caused heavy damage on both sides. Western estimates suggest Hezbollah has around 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided missiles capable of striking deep into Israeli territory, posing a significant threat to Israel’s air defense systems.
Israeli authorities have labeled Hezbollah’s attacks as unacceptable and face increasing pressure to act, enabling displaced residents to return to northern communities. Military officials have indicated the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are ready to launch an offensive against Hezbollah, though specifics remain unclear.
Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has stated the group does not seek a full-scale war with Israel but is prepared for one. He noted last month that only a fraction of Hezbollah’s arsenal had been deployed, warning that any war would be fought “without constraints or rules.” A significant operation against Hezbollah could involve other Iranian-backed militias in the region, part of what Tehran calls the “Axis of Resistance.”
A full-scale war would devastate both countries, particularly Lebanon, which has been in a prolonged crisis for over five years. The economy has collapsed, with an estimated 80% of the population in poverty, and political disputes have prevented the election of a president for nearly two years. The government has limited influence over Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the US and others.
However, a full-scale war is not inevitable. Diplomats are working to prevent a major escalation, and Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib told Ecnetnews that authorities were “asking Hezbollah not to retaliate.”
Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Oren Marmorstein stated that the “only way” to prevent conflict is to implement United Nations Resolution 1701, passed to end the 2006 war. This resolution calls for the withdrawal of armed groups from southern Lebanon, between the Litani River and the Blue Line, the unofficial frontier with Israel, but has not been fully applied. Marmorstein emphasized that now is the “very last minute” to prevent war diplomatically.
