LOS ANGELES — As Americans grapple with soaring rent prices, a staggering 223,000 affordable housing units may vanish in the next five years across the United States.
This crisis places low-income tenants in precarious situations, facing daunting eviction proceedings and rent increases that can double their payments, forcing them back into an expensive housing market that devours a significant portion of their income.
These affordable housing units were funded through the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC), a federal initiative initiated in 1987 designed to provide tax incentives to developers in exchange for maintaining low rental rates.
LIHTC has successfully created 3.6 million units nationwide, and its expansion is a focal point in current housing plans aimed at constructing 3 million new homes.
However, many of these buildings are only required to remain affordable for a minimum of 30 years. As the deadlines for LIHTC construction from the 1990s arrive, a significant loss of affordable housing is imminent just as demand escalates.
While estimates on LIHTC units losing affordability vary, projections indicate that around 350,000 units could transition to market rates by 2030, rising to approximately 1 million by 2040.
Not all units that lose LIHTC protections automatically shift to market rates; some may remain affordable through alternative government incentives or proactive landlords in states like California, Colorado, and New York.
Despite this, the impending loss of affordable units significantly threatens a housing market already struggling to meet the needs of its residents.
Local governments and nonprofits have options to acquire expiring properties, apply for new tax credits to maintain affordability, or rally tenants to urge action from landlords and officials.
In California, legislation mandates that all new LIHTC developments remain affordable for 55 years. Expiring buildings built prior to this requirement are prioritized for new tax credits, necessitating that LIHTC applicants have experience in managing affordable housing.
Moreover, California and Colorado legislation compels landlords to notify local authorities and tenants about expiring agreements, providing cities and nonprofits the opportunity to purchase the properties for continued affordability.
In contrast, many states have not extended LIHTC agreements beyond the initial 30 years or implemented measures to secure expiring housing as affordable.
However, funding for local governments or nonprofits to acquire these properties remains uncertain, and new tax credit allocations are limited, based on population distribution from the Internal Revenue Service.
For Marina Maalouf, the affordable rent in her LIHTC apartment in Los Angeles’ Chinatown had been a vital lifeline for her family, including a granddaughter with autism.
When that stability ended, the landlord raised the rent from $1,100 to $2,660 in 2021, a shocking increase that left Maalouf’s family unable to cope. This led to tenant protests, a rent strike, and ongoing eviction cases.
The uncertainty surrounding her eviction case looms large, impacting Maalouf’s daily life as she worries about her family’s future. “We still here. We still here,” she reassures herself, though the stress of the situation takes its toll.
Maalouf’s tenant advocacy efforts have made a difference, with the City of Los Angeles proposing a $15 million plan to keep her building affordable until 2034. However, this proposal does not alleviate the pressure from the numerous eviction cases still in progress.
On a recent day, her granddaughter approached with a glass of water. Although just 5 years old, her speech reflects her special needs, consisting mainly of fractured phrases rather than complete sentences.
“I pray for everything to return to normal, so she can feel safe,” Maalouf said, her voice trembling with emotion, while encouraging her son to save for an uncertain future.
“We’ll keep fighting,” she declared, “but it’s hard to do this day by day. … I’m already so tired.”
