NEWAYGO, Mich. — Michigan is set to be a focal point in the upcoming presidential campaign, with critical state primaries occurring on Tuesday that could influence control of the closely divided U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and the state legislature.
The top contest features the Democratic primary race to succeed U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow, who will not be seeking a fifth term. The race includes three-term U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin and Detroit entrepreneur Hill Harper, an actor and small business owner.
Slotkin has effectively maintained her seat in the competitive Lansing-area district since 2018, winning her last election with nearly 52% of the vote—her strongest performance across three campaigns. Her previous victories were achieved with under 51% of the vote.
Should Slotkin secure the primary win as anticipated, she will face a formidable challenger in the likely Republican nominee, former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, who aims to break the Republican party’s 24-year dry spell in Michigan’s U.S. Senate races. Rogers, a former Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, officially launched his campaign in September and has gained significant support from party leadership, narrowing down the Republican primary field. Competing against him are former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, known for his impeachment vote against Donald Trump, and physician Sherry O’Donnell, a former congressional candidate.
Financially, Slotkin contributes to her advantage, having raised and amassed more campaign funds than her Democratic and Republican opponents combined.
In the race for the 7th Congressional District, Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett, both former state senators, are set to replace Slotkin, with no opposition in their respective party primaries. The 7th District has demonstrated a trend of tightly contested races between Republicans and Democrats in recent elections.
Other crucial congressional contests in Michigan that could impact the U.S. House’s control include the 3rd, 8th, and 10th districts, all hosting competitive primaries on Tuesday.
In the 3rd District, Republicans Paul Hudson and Michael Markey are competing for the chance to challenge Democratic U.S. Representative Hillary Scholten, who is favored in her primary. The district has leaned toward Democratic candidates in recent elections.
The 8th District, which includes Flint and Saginaw, showcases a six-way race with three Democrats and three Republicans vying to replace retiring Democratic U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee.
In the 10th District, Democrat Carl Marlinga is seeking a rematch against Republican U.S. Rep. John James, but first needs to navigate a field of three other Democratic challengers.
Across Michigan, voters will also decide on 67 contested state House primaries, as Democrats currently hold a narrow majority in the state legislature following the 2022 elections. The upcoming November general election will feature all 110 state House seats, while State Senate seats won’t be up for grabs until 2026.
Key insights for Tuesday’s elections include Michigan’s open primary system, enabling any registered voter to participate in any party’s primary. Polls will close at 9 p.m. ET, with most locations shuttering by 8 p.m. local time.
Significant counties—Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Kent, Genesee, and Washtenaw—play critical roles in statewide elections, being densely populated and pivotal in electoral outcomes.
Former U.S. Senate contender Sandy Pensler, although having withdrawn from the race, will still appear on the ballot and may impact the Republican primary dynamics by endorsing Rogers.
Recounts are automatically triggered in Michigan for statewide races if the margin between top candidates is 2,000 votes or fewer. Candidates also maintain the option to request recounts at their own expense. Recent changes to recount laws will take effect after the 2024 presidential election.
As of early July, Michigan had approximately 8.3 million registered voters. In the 2022 midterm primaries, turnout was around 12% for Democrats and 13% for Republicans. Current pre-election turnout trends suggest active voter engagement leading up to the primary day.
The state stands poised for an intense primary election, with only 91 days remaining until the November general election.
