The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), comprised of 57 nations, convened an urgent meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, at Iran’s request. The meeting focused on several pressing issues, including the recent assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
During this assembly, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei pledged “harsh punishment” in response to the assassination, outlining anticipated retaliatory measures.
Both Iran and Hamas attribute the assassination, which occurred on July 31, to Israel, although Israel has not officially commented on the allegations. This widely held belief aligns with regional tensions surrounding the incident.
Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Baqeri Ali Bagheri Kani emphasized that Iran feels compelled to respond, indicating that retaliation would be executed “at the right time and in the appropriate shape.”
Kani characterized Iran’s potential reaction as a defense not only of its own sovereignty but also of regional stability and security.
Haniyeh was killed in a secure Iranian facility while attending the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian, marking a significant lapse in Iranian security protocols.
In the aftermath of the assassination, Iran’s every communication has been scrutinized for clues regarding its response, raising concerns about a possible escalation of conflict with Israel.
Nevertheless, Kani provided no clear indications of Iran’s next moves, and Western intelligence remains unclear about Iran’s intended strategies.
A prior incident in April, where a strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus resulted in the deaths of eight IRGC officers, is believed to have been linked to Israel, adding further embarrassment to Iranian leadership.
After previously signaling an aggressive stance, Iran reportedly launched over 300 missiles and drones at Israel, though most were intercepted by Israeli defenses without significant impact on the conflict.
American officials have recently suggested that Iran may be preparing a more substantial operation to avoid past failures in their retaliation attempts.
Reports indicate that the recent details surrounding Haniyeh’s assassination might have prompted Tehran to reevaluate its plans. Notably, no Iranian casualties occurred during the incident, and diplomatic overtures from Western and Arab nations may also influence Iran’s response.
In a significant diplomatic gesture, the Jordanian foreign minister visited Iran recently, while international leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have urged Iran to avoid further military escalation.
Additionally, speculation surrounds a possible attack on Israel from Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed group in Lebanon, in response to the killing of its senior commander Fuad Shukr, which coincided with Haniyeh’s assassination.
Mounting fears of a broader conflict in Lebanon echo the region’s volatility, especially since Hezbollah had intensified its operations against Israel following the Hamas attacks on October 7.
Conflict has largely remained confined to the Lebanon-Israel border, with both Hezbollah and Israel expressing a desire to avoid full-scale war, although Hezbollah’s military actions have escalated in sophistication and reach.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has vowed a “strong” response, recognizing Shukr as a pivotal strategist for their operations and indicating that they communicated shortly before his death.
Historically, Hezbollah has retaliated against the assassinations of its leaders by launching extensive rocket attacks on Israel. However, the high-profile nature of Shukr’s killing may lead to a more symbolic response within established engagement rules.
Amidst memories of the devastation from past conflicts, many in Lebanon are concerned about becoming embroiled in a war not desired by the nation. Nevertheless, a weakened Hezbollah does not align with Iranian interests, especially given its strategic position against Israel.
Israeli authorities perceive Iran’s nuclear ambitions as a fundamental threat, anticipating that Hezbollah could play a critical role if Israeli operations target Iranian facilities.
Hezbollah represents a key faction of the Axis of Resistance, an Iranian-backed coalition encompassing groups in various countries that have intensified attacks on Israeli and Western targets since October.
The extent of coordination among Iran and its allies remains uncertain, with some reports suggesting Hezbollah may independently initiate actions against Israel.
This week, U.S. Central Command General Michael Kurilla visited Israel to review security measures, preparing for potential Iranian threats.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has issued a warning, stating that any act of aggression will incur a “heavy price.”
As tensions mount, flight cancellations and suspensions are occurring in both Israel and Lebanon, with airlines avoiding the airspace. Governments worldwide are advising citizens to evacuate, as the potential for conflict looms over the region.
