Leading presidential candidates, including Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, are vying for Indonesia’s top political position as the nation’s election day approaches. The last presidential election debate took place at the Jakarta Convention Center on February 4, 2024.
More than 200 million voters are set to head to over 800,000 polling stations across Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy, on Wednesday to select President Joko Widodo’s successor, a new national House of Representatives, and various local leaders.
Prabowo Subianto, 72, is currently regarded as the frontrunner in this election and is making what could be his final bid for the presidency. Following his previous defeats to Widodo in the last two elections, various opinion polls indicate a strong lead for Prabowo ahead of the February 14 vote.
The results of this election could significantly influence Indonesia’s evolving democratic landscape and its aspirations for developed nation status by 2045. The new president’s stance on critical policies, such as the relocation of the national capital and Indonesia’s ambitions in global battery manufacturing, remains uncertain.
“Although it is Prabowo’s election to lose, it does not guarantee a swift victory,” noted a political analyst from a prominent educational institution.
Recent opinion polls show Prabowo capturing over 50% of the vote, positioning him favorably against two main opponents. He is running as the candidate of the Gerindra Party.
To win outright, a candidate pairing must achieve over 50% of the national vote and at least 20% in over half of Indonesia’s 38 provinces. If no candidate meets these criteria, a runoff will take place in June between the top two pairings.
Voters will have six hours to cast their votes for their preferred presidential and vice-presidential candidates, as well as for national, provincial, and regency legislators, alongside a regional senator for the national parliament.
The polling stations will open at 7 a.m. and close at 1 p.m. local time across Indonesia, which spans three time zones. While preliminary results may be available on the same day, official results could take up to a month to be finalized.
Anies Baswedan is pursuing the presidency supported by three parties, including the secular Nasdem Party and the conservative Prosperous Justice Party, with Muhaimin Iskandar as his vice-presidential running mate.
Ganjar Pranowo, former governor of Central Java, has emerged as the candidate for the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, with Mohammad Mahfud Mahmodin as his running mate.
In Indonesia, only political parties or coalitions with a minimum of 20% of the House of Representatives’ seats or a quarter of the popular vote from the previous election are eligible to nominate presidential and vice-presidential candidates.
Prabowo’s Military Background
President Jokowi will not seek re-election after serving the maximum of two five-year terms. His son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is running as Prabowo’s vice-presidential candidate. Gibran, 36, was added to the ticket following legal amendments permitting candidates under 40 to run for top offices if they have regional political experience.
“Prabowo’s campaign theme emphasizes continuity, but it is likely he will also want to leave his distinct mark,” stated an expert on Indonesian politics.
Prabowo’s military career includes a controversial history that includes allegations of human rights violations during his service as an Indonesian special forces commander. He was dishonorably discharged in 1998 following accusations related to the military’s actions against pro-democracy activists.
Prabowo has faced accusations of involvement in past atrocities, yet his campaign has adopted a light-hearted approach to appeal to younger voters, showcasing his social media presence and dance moves.
Over half of Indonesia’s electorate comprises voters born after 1980, with the minimum voting age set at 17.
“Concerns remain regarding his potential to reverse progressive democratic norms established in Indonesia post-Suharto,” added the political analyst.
Jokowi’s Economic Achievements
Despite their previous rivalry, Prabowo has pledged to continue President Jokowi’s successful economic reforms.
“Jokowi’s tenure has seen vital reforms that bolster the economy’s long-term outlook, including significant labor market changes and increased infrastructure investment,” noted an economic expert.
Criticism has arisen over the nomination of Jokowi’s son as Prabowo’s running mate, seen by many as a sign of nepotism, yet it may also reflect a desire for policy continuity.
Whichever candidate emerges victorious will likely encounter significant challenges, including economic constraints and policy uncertainties. Observers anticipate potential changes post-election, including the fate of the new capital city project and fiscal policy adjustments.
As the candidates present similar economic platforms, immediate economic ramifications may be limited regardless of the election outcome, according to analysts.
