The sentiment index for housing developers in Greater Bangkok has recorded a significant decline for the second consecutive quarter, hitting its lowest level since the third quarter of 2020. In the latest report, the Government Housing Bank revealed that the current situation index stands at 45.1, a decrease of 4.6 points compared to the previous year and down 0.1 points from the prior quarter.
According to officials, this index has remained under the neutral median threshold of 50 for seven straight quarters, indicating a persistent downturn in developer confidence within the residential market.
The last recorded figure this low was in Q3 2020 at 42.8 points, before experiencing a modest recovery to 46.3 in the following quarter.
Most notably, the Q3 2024 index shows a substantial drop in sales sentiment, which plummeted by 6.6 points to 40.7. Investment sentiment also saw a slight decrease, falling 0.2 points to 47.4. Conversely, there was an increase in revenue sentiment, which rose by 2.5 points to 42.0, alongside a 1.6 point boost in sentiment for new launches, which climbed to 50.7.
While development cost sentiment rose by 1.5 points to 40.4 and employment sentiment increased by 0.9 points to 49.6, all components, except for sentiment regarding new launches, remain below the neutral threshold.
For listed developers, the sentiment index is now recorded at 47.9, a stark drop from 52.2 in Q2 2024, suggesting diminished confidence among publicly-listed firms and growing concerns within the sector.
The sharpest decline among listed firms was seen in sales sentiment, which fell 15.8 points to 43.8. Additionally, investment and new project launches decreased by 5.6 points to 52.1, while revenue sentiment dipped by 2.3 points to 47.7. The only areas showing improvement were development costs, which increased by 3.1 points to 39.6, and a modest gain in employment sentiment by 0.2 points to 52.1.
Looking ahead, the expectations index, which gauges sentiment for the next six months, was reported at 51.6, a slight increase from 51.4 in the second quarter of 2024. This figure remains above the neutral median, indicating a more optimistic outlook among developers for the upcoming period.
The most notable increase was in sales expectations, which rose by 3.4 points to 57.8. Development costs also saw an uptick of 2.9 points to 37.5, while employment expectations grew by 2.2 points to 52.4, and revenue expectations increased by 2.0 points to 53.0. However, there were declines in two areas: new launches fell by 6.3 points to 58.1, and investment sentiment decreased by 3.1 points to 51.0.
