PUBLISHED : 1 Aug 2024 at 10:03
Thai rice exports are projected to fall below 8 million tonnes next year due to numerous challenges impacting their competitiveness. Key factors include insufficient research and development (R&D) for rice varieties, an increase in global supply, and the likelihood of India lifting its rice export restrictions by year-end.
Charoen Laothamatas, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, noted that the revised export forecast is below the previous estimate of 8.2 million tonnes.
Concerns persist regarding Thai rice exports, with global rice stocks expected to rise by 1.4% to approximately 528 million tonnes due to increased rainfall for cultivation from the La Niña weather phenomenon. Coupled with a lack of R&D for rice varieties, which hinders yield per rai compared to other major exporting nations like Vietnam, India, and China, the situation poses significant challenges. Additionally, higher production costs and the impending possibility of India lifting its export restrictions on non-basmati white rice compound the issue.
To enhance its competitiveness, Thailand must adapt its rice policies to align with global market demands, particularly the increasing preference for soft texture rice. Increased investment in R&D is vital for improving yield and staying competitive on the world stage.
In contrast, Vietnam has modified its rice export strategy by importing cost-effective rice from India for local consumption, while focusing on developing premium rice varieties, such as fragrant and soft texture rice, which command higher prices and greater value.
If Thailand does not proactively address these challenges, it risks losing its position among the leading rice-exporting countries, potentially allowing China to emerge as the top exporter as it advances in rice variety development and farming techniques. Many nations are also shifting towards policies aimed at self-sufficiency.
The United States Department of Agriculture projects India will continue to be the largest rice exporter worldwide in 2025, with expected exports reaching 18 million tonnes, followed by Thailand and Vietnam at 7.5 million tonnes each, and Pakistan at 5.6 million tonnes.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, expressed confidence that exports could meet the Commerce Ministry’s target of 8.2 million tonnes. If average monthly exports reach 700,000 tonnes, they could surpass this target and potentially reach 9 million tonnes, valued at over US$5.3 billion, driven by strong demand from key markets such as the Philippines and Indonesia, which are anticipated to increase their rice imports significantly.
Ongoing scrutiny of India’s rice policies is critical, as the country may reassess its export restrictions following substantial rainfall leading to a normalization of stock levels at 140 million tonnes. This could dramatically influence global rice exports, as Indian rice tends to be more affordable than that from other exporting countries.
