The global commodities market has experienced significant volatility in 2024, with many prices remaining elevated. Notably, prices for orange juice and cocoa have surged to record highs in the first half of the year, while crude oil prices have fluctuated in response to ongoing geopolitical developments. Gold prices continue their upward trend, whereas base metals like iron ore have seen a marked decline.
“Commodity markets this year have exhibited erratic behavior, swayed by sentiment and the slightest indications of potential price changes,” stated an expert on commodities analysis. The S&P GSCI, a major indicator of commodity market performance, rose as high as 12% in April before stabilizing to a 2.18% increase year-to-date.
Recent data highlights a selection of soft commodities making notable gains, including cocoa, eggs, orange juice, rubber, and coffee, which have all benefitted from adverse weather conditions affecting their main production regions.
Biggest Winners in Commodities
Cocoa
Cocoa has emerged as the strongest performer, with prices soaring 66% this year. Futures reached a historic peak of $11,722 per metric ton in April due to a shortage caused by heavy rains and diseases affecting primary producers, Ivory Coast and Ghana. While prices have moderated, cocoa futures remain above traditional levels, indicating ongoing volatility in the market.
Eggs
The resurgence of avian influenza has caused egg prices to spike over 62% per dozen in 2024, reflecting significant impacts on poultry production across various countries. As a result, the current spot price for a dozen large white eggs is $3.57. Consumers are increasingly turning to eggs as a cost-effective protein source, further driving demand.
Orange Juice
In May, orange juice futures hit record levels, currently trading around $4.49 per pound as production declines in Florida and climate challenges in Brazil exacerbate supply issues. This trend is expected to persist, with global orange juice production facing ongoing declines.
Rubber
Rubber prices have increased nearly 30% this year due to reduced production levels in Thailand and Indonesia, primarily driven by unfavorable weather patterns. Current trading for rubber futures suggests sustained high prices as the global demand continues.
Coffee
Coffee prices have rallied 25% year-to-date, driven by adverse weather conditions in Southeast Brazil and challenges stemming from El Niño in Southeast Asia, impacting crucial coffee-producing areas like Vietnam and Indonesia.
Biggest Losers in Commodities
Iron Ore
Iron ore has suffered the steepest price drops amidst declining demand tied to China’s struggling property market. As steel mills face tighter margins, iron ore prices remain subdued, trading at $98.10 per ton.
Grains
Grain prices, including wheat, corn, and soybeans, have also tumbled due to a surplus resulting from abundant harvests across major production areas. Wheat and corn prices have seen declines of nearly 15% this year, while soybeans have dropped approximately 25%.
Notable Mentions
Gold
Gold has achieved record highs this year, influenced by anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts and strong safe-haven demand. Currently, gold futures have reached an all-time high of $2,549.90 per ounce. Despite the market’s volatility, the outlook for global commodities remains optimistic, with expectations for continued price support prompted by a weakening U.S. dollar.
Analysts predict that the shift from an El Niño to a La Niña weather pattern could bring significant changes to global agricultural markets by the end of the year, potentially altering production conditions as we move into 2025.
