As the 2024 presidential election heats up, former President Donald Trump and several other Republican figures are perpetuating false claims that Democrats are intentionally allowing migrants to enter the U.S. to bolster their voting base. These allegations have no factual basis and echo a long-standing racist conspiracy theory known as the “great replacement.”
The topic of voter fraud, particularly concerning noncitizen voting, has circulated within American politics for over a century without substantial evidence. Critics warn that the GOP’s recent legislative push to require documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration could disenfranchise millions of eligible voters. Recent surveys indicate that approximately 1 in 10 U.S. adult citizens lack easy access to documents such as birth certificates or passports required for registration.
Understanding the Myths Surrounding Noncitizen Voting
It is illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal or state elections. The federal voter registration form prominently asks for the registrant’s citizenship status, with severe penalties in place for false statements, including fines, imprisonment, or deportation. Additionally, noncitizens who register to vote risk losing the opportunity for future U.S. citizenship.
Voting rights advocates argue that these penalties serve as strong deterrents. For many, especially those on green cards, the risk of arrest or deportation is significant.
Election officials consistently verify voter registration information and remove ineligible voters from rolls. Many states cross-reference this information with databases from state motor vehicle departments or other federal records to ensure accuracy. However, the risk of erroneously removing eligible voters remains high, as outdated databases may not reflect the naturalization status of immigrants.
Rarity of Noncitizen Voting
Data indicates that noncitizen voting is exceptionally rare. A survey by the Brennan Center for Justice revealed just 30 suspected cases of noncitizen voting out of 23.5 million votes cast across 42 jurisdictions with large immigrant populations, equating to a mere 0.0001% of total votes. A subsequent audit in North Carolina discovered similar findings related to green card holders misinformed about their eligibility.
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger reported that, over 25 years, under 1,700 people believed to be noncitizens attempted to register, and none were successful in casting ballots.
A federal judge reviewing Arizona’s proof of citizenship laws noted that non-citizen voting is rare and highlighted the lack of evidence for widespread fraud.
The Heritage Foundation has long touted claims of noncitizen voting; however, its own data shows only 85 cases related to allegations of non-citizen voting from 2002 to 2023. Analyses by other organizations reveal that most instances involve legal immigrants misinformed about their voting rights.
Myths Fueled by Flawed Academic Research
A contentious study from 2014 claiming significant noncitizen voting rates has been widely discredited. The study’s methodology was criticized for drawing unreliable conclusions from a small online survey sample.
Despite the overwhelming evidence debunking these claims, they continue to influence the political narrative, especially among supporters of Trump who appear to set the groundwork for contesting the upcoming election results based on unfounded allegations.
Potential Impact of Misinformation
As the election approaches, persistent false narratives about noncitizen voting may weaken public confidence in the electoral process. Experts warn that if Trump were to lose, he would likely claim widespread fraud involving noncitizen voting, inciting public outrage and possibly violence.
