China’s energy landscape is transforming as the nation integrates more renewable sources into its vast electrical grid, yet this shift is exposing the system to heightened risks of power shortages due to adverse weather conditions. To maintain a stable power supply, the Chinese government may need to increasingly rely on coal-fired power plants.
Recent advancements in clean energy have seen China consistently achieving new records in wind and solar power generation. The country’s greenhouse gas emissions, currently the highest in the world, are anticipated to peak soon and subsequently decline. Currently, wind, solar, and hydropower contribute to approximately half of China’s power generation capacity, with projections indicating that these renewable sources could reach nearly 90 percent by 2060, aligning with the nation’s carbon neutrality commitments.
This escalated dependence on renewable energy poses a challenge as extreme weather can greatly disrupt power generation. While hydropower from extensive dams in southern China can help offset irregular wind and solar output, the question arises: What happens when there’s a simultaneous decline in wind and solar production accompanied by drought conditions?
Research conducted by experts at Dalian University of Technology has modeled the potential impact of adverse weather on China’s renewable energy grid. Their findings suggest that the future grid will be significantly more vulnerable to weather fluctuations. In the most adverse weather scenarios, power generation could fall by up to 10 percent, threatening energy shortages. In 2030, unfavorable weather conditions could lead to an energy deficit surpassing 400 terawatt-hours, amounting to nearly 4 percent of the country’s total energy demand, a figure that cannot be overlooked.
Moreover, droughts could limit hydropower production, further exacerbating energy shortages. The researchers emphasize the importance of incorporating stable energy sources that are less impacted by weather variability into the power grid to mitigate the risk of widespread electricity shortages.
One potential solution is to enhance the efficiency of electricity transmission between provinces. By expanding the infrastructure for electricity transfer, the risk of shortages could be significantly reduced, halving the threat by 2060. The addition of substantial new power capacity, through batteries or similar technologies, can also serve as a buffer against drought-related decreases in hydropower output.
Experts project that the scale of additional energy storage required for achieving carbon neutrality will be monumental. Despite the challenges, building the necessary infrastructure is feasible given the extensive battery production already occurring in China. In addition, the nation is developing 190 gigawatts of pumped hydropower capacity, which offers a sustainable option for long-term energy storage.
Historically, power shortages in China have prompted a rise in coal-fired power plant construction. In response to hydropower shortages and increased demand due to extreme weather in 2021 and 2022, serious blackouts occurred, intensifying political pressure to expand coal energy use. In 2023, record-low hydropower outputs coincided with record-high carbon emissions.
Although President Xi Jinping has indicated that coal power generation is expected to peak this year, entrenched political support for coal complicates this transition. “If China experiences more episodes of extreme weather, resorting to coal-fired power plants should not be the solution,” industry experts argue, pointing out the difficulty in phasing out coal dependence in a country that has long relied on this energy source.
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