The newly appointed Senate is preparing for its inaugural meeting, set to take place on July 23, and will play a pivotal role in the ongoing charter amendment debates and the political maneuvering among government coalition parties.
Political analysts note that the new Upper House has a significant presence of senators believed to be aligned with Bhumjaithai, indicating a shift in political power dynamics.
The recently elected Senate Speaker and a deputy are viewed as closely connected to the third-largest political party, further solidifying Bhumjaithai’s influence. The “blue” bloc, comprising around 150 senators, is mentioned as the dominant faction in the new Upper House, enhancing the party’s political leverage.
Although the new senators lack the authority to join Members of Parliament (MPs) in electing a prime minister, they retain essential responsibilities, such as passing legislation and constitutional amendments, endorsing appointments to independent organizations and constitutional judges, and ensuring accountability of the executive branch.
As per constitutional provisions, any proposal to amend the charter requires a minimum of one-third support from the new Senate, equating to at least 67 senators. Charter amendments cannot proceed without this backing.
Challenges Ahead for Charter Change
Experts highlight that the opposition Move Forward Party’s agenda to amend the constitution, particularly the fundamental Chapters 1 and 2, will confront significant obstacles in the new Senate. Amendments pertaining to topics such as lese majeste may face additional resistance.
Analysts believe that most senators will likely support constitutional amendments, provided that Chapters 1 and 2 remain unchanged, aligning with the positions held by Bhumjaithai leaders.
Bhumjaithai’s leadership has stated that the lese majeste law must also remain undisturbed, which influences the dynamics of any potential constitutional reform.
Increased Political Clout
Political commentary suggests that the collective influence of senators from the blue bloc is already enhancing Bhumjaithai’s political standing, particularly evident in tensions with the ruling Pheu Thai Party over the reclassification of cannabis.
Reports indicate that Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has directed that a cannabis control bill be presented to parliament, signaling a potential shift in regulatory strategy that aims to pacify Bhumjaithai amidst their objections to tightening cannabis regulations.
Experts also note that the blue bloc consists of senators with ties to both Bhumjaithai and older political powers, with their primary objective being the preservation of their privileges.
The Senate’s conservative leanings suggest that any proposals aimed at altering monarchy-related constitutional provisions will likely encounter strong resistance. Consequently, comprehensive constitutional revisions may prove difficult, with amendments taking a more piecemeal approach.
Additionally, Bhumjaithai-affiliated senators are expected to secure prominent roles within critical Senate committees, particularly those linked to ministries under their influence.
Stithorn Thananithichot from the Office of Innovation for Democracy indicated that senators from the blue camp will significantly influence both charter amendments and the appointment processes for independent agencies. He emphasized the necessity for negotiations with these senators for anyone looking to achieve political objectives in the current landscape.
