The last major storm to impact Tampa Bay was Hurricane Milton, which is strengthening into a Category 5 storm as it approaches the Gulf Coast of Florida. A century ago, Tampa was a small town with a population of just a few hundred thousand; today, it has transformed into one of the fastest-growing urban areas in the United States, boasting over 3 million residents and heightened vulnerability to flooding driven by climate change.
According to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, Tampa Bay can expect a storm surge of between 8 and 12 feet above normal levels, along with rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches due to the impending hurricane. The Gulf Coast is particularly susceptible to storm surges, as evidenced by the recent impacts of Hurricane Helene, which, despite making landfall 150 miles away, resulted in drowning incidents in the Tampa area.
Experts highlight that Tampa Bay is among the most at-risk regions in the U.S. for storm surge flooding, with a 2015 report estimating potential damages could reach $175 billion. Moreover, the geographical characteristics of the Gulf of Mexico, featuring a shallow and gently sloping coastline, exacerbate the situation by trapping storm water and leading to increased surges.
In the last few years, the Tampa Bay area has experienced significant population growth, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. This expansion has left many new residents unaccustomed to the potential threats posed by hurricanes, as the region hasn’t faced a direct hit from a major storm in over 100 years.
As Hurricane Milton intensifies, officials have initiated evacuation orders for six counties surrounding Tampa Bay, impacting nearly 4 million residents. The Florida Division of Emergency Management has urged residents, especially those living in mobile and manufactured homes, to evacuate promptly, emphasizing the preventable nature of drowning deaths associated with storm surges.
The last major hurricane to make landfall in Tampa was in 1921, a storm that remains a stark reminder of the potential devastation that could revisit this growing metropolis. Now equipped with a booming economy and vital tourist destinations, the threat posed by Hurricane Milton has raised urgent concerns over the future of the Tampa Bay area.
