Growing Antibiotic Resistance Poses Global Health Threat
The alarming rise in antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections is projected to increase global deaths from 1.27 million annually in 2019 to 1.91 million by 2050. In total, antibiotic resistance could claim 39 million lives over the coming decades, but decisive action can prevent more than a third of these deaths.
Antibiotic resistance occurs when bacteria adapt to survive drugs that were previously effective at eliminating them, enabling infections to persist and spread. This issue is exacerbated by the widespread use of antibiotics in both agriculture and healthcare, although the true extent of the problem remains unclear.
Researchers have sought to quantify the annual deaths linked to antibiotic resistance from 1990 to 2021. Utilizing data from over 500 million records, the estimates indicate that while overall fatalities have risen, deaths among young children have significantly declined due to enhanced vaccination and healthcare efforts. From 1990 to 2021, deaths linked to antibiotic resistance fell by over 50% in children under five, contrasting with an 80% increase in fatalities among adults over 70.
Between 1990 and 2019, deaths attributable to antibiotic resistance rose from 1.06 million to 1.27 million, then slightly decreased to 1.14 million in 2021. This drop is believed to be a temporary effect of COVID-19 prevention measures rather than a sustainable improvement in addressing antibiotic resistance.
The study indicates that, in the likely future scenario, deaths due to antibiotic resistance could reach 1.91 million per year by 2050. However, if breakthroughs in new antibiotic development occur, 11 million deaths could be averted in this timeframe. Increased access to quality healthcare could also further reduce mortality rates.
This new projection of 1.91 million annual deaths is significantly lower than earlier estimates suggesting up to 10 million deaths by 2050. The previous figure stemmed from less robust data and included resistance issues related to non-antibiotic medications for diseases like HIV and malaria.
Experts note that while this new research improves our understanding of antibiotic resistance, it does have limitations. It assumes a uniform risk level for antibiotic-resistant infections worldwide, not accounting for variations based on healthcare infrastructure. In regions with limited healthcare facilities, drug-resistant infections may not always result in a higher mortality rate compared to drug-susceptible infections.
There are also concerns regarding the reliability of future predictions. The emergence or disappearance of drug-resistant microbes can happen unpredictably, and unforeseen events may further complicate forecasting efforts.
