ECNETNews reports that new projections for the 2024 U.S. holiday shopping season reveal an anticipated record of $240.8 billion in online sales from November 1 to December 31. This marks an 8.4% increase from last year. Drawing insights from extensive data on U.S. retail websites, including over 1 trillion visits and a vast array of products, this report highlights significant e-commerce trends for the upcoming season.
E-commerce Boom Driven by Mobile Shopping
The 2024 holiday shopping period is expected to be the most mobile-centric yet, with mobile device spending reaching $128.1 billion, accounting for 53.2% of all online sales. This shift underscores the growing preference for mobile commerce, which has seen a 12.8% year-over-year increase.
Cyber Week, spanning from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is projected to contribute $40.6 billion to the overall holiday expenditures, with Cyber Monday set to be the busiest shopping day of the year, forecasting a record $13.2 billion in sales—a 6.1% increase from last year. Notably, Black Friday is expected to surpass Cyber Monday’s growth, with projected sales of $10.8 billion, marking a 9.9% increase year-over-year. Additionally, Thanksgiving Day sales are expected to rise to $6.1 billion, an increase of 8.7%.
Attractive Discounts to Boost Consumer Spending
Consumers are likely to be enticed by substantial discounts, with price reductions averaging as much as 30% across key categories. Electronics are expected to see discounts peaking at 30%, while televisions may achieve record discounts of 24%. Other categories such as sporting goods, apparel, and toys will also display noteworthy price cuts, contributing an estimated $2 billion to $3 billion in incremental online spending during the holiday season.
Consumers Upgrading Purchases Thanks to Discounts
After opting for lower-priced items due to inflation, shoppers are anticipated to “trade up” for more premium products this holiday season, propelled by competitive discounting. The share of higher-priced goods sold is expected to surge by 19%, with notable increases in sporting goods (up 76%), electronics (up 58%), and home appliances (up 40%).
Influencers and AI Shaping Consumer Choices
Influencers are increasingly guiding consumer decisions, with data indicating that purchases driven by influencer recommendations are ten times more effective than traditional social media marketing. Among Gen Z shoppers, 37% reported purchasing items based on influencer endorsements during the holiday season.
Additionally, generative AI is making waves, with traffic to retail websites via AI-powered chatbots doubling in 2024. Shoppers are leveraging generative AI for deal hunting, with 20% using it to find the best bargains and 19% to search for specific products online.
Growth of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Options
The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) payment method is expected to significantly impact this year’s holiday shopping, projected to facilitate $18.5 billion in online spending—an 11.4% year-over-year increase. November alone is anticipated to account for $9.5 billion in BNPL transactions, marking it as the largest month on record, with Cyber Monday expected to generate nearly $1 billion in BNPL activity.
Leading Categories and Anticipated Bestsellers
Electronics, apparel, and furniture are likely to comprise over half of the online holiday spending, with electronics alone projected to drive $55.1 billion in sales, an 8.5% increase compared to last year. Other categories expected to see growth include toys ($8.1 billion, up 5.8% YoY) and sporting goods ($7.2 billion, up 5.5% YoY). Key anticipated bestsellers include popular toys like LEGO sets and the Bluey Ultimate Lights and Sounds Playhouse, as well as sought-after electronics such as the iPhone 16 and Samsung Galaxy S24 Ultra.
