A newly formed military alliance between Somalia and Egypt is stirring tensions in the Horn of Africa, particularly troubling Ethiopia. Concerns are mounting that this situation may escalate beyond mere verbal confrontations.
The situation intensified this week following the arrival of two Egyptian C-130 military aircraft in Mogadishu, signaling the initiation of an agreement made earlier in August during a state visit by the Somali president to Cairo.
The arrangement could see up to 5,000 Egyptian soldiers integrated into a revamped African Union force by the year’s end, with additional troops potentially being deployed separately.
Ethiopia, a longstanding ally of Somalia in combating al-Qaeda-linked insurgents, affirmed that it cannot remain passive while regional instability grows, as tensions also escalate over Ethiopia’s controversial dam project on the Nile.
In response, Somalia’s defense minister criticized Ethiopia’s concerns, warning that “everyone will reap what they sow” in light of deteriorating diplomatic relations.
Background of Conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia
This conflict primarily revolves around the ambitions of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who is seeking access to a port after losing its coastal routes following Eritrea’s independence in the 1990s.
On New Year’s Day, Abiy signed a controversial agreement with the self-declared republic of Somaliland to lease a 20-kilometer strip of coastline for 50 years to construct a naval base, which could also pave the way for Ethiopia to officially recognize Somaliland.
Somaliland, having declared independence over 30 years ago, is viewed by Mogadishu as part of its territory, leading to accusations of aggression regarding the port deal.
Geopolitical experts warn that other nations may follow suit in recognizing Somaliland’s independence, threatening the stability of the region.
Djibouti, also concerned about its port-dependent economy, has offered Ethiopia “100%” access to its facilities as a means to quell rising tensions.
Efforts by third parties to mediate have yet to yield results, with Somalia insisting on recognition of its sovereignty over Somaliland as a precondition.
Ethiopia’s Reaction to Somalia’s Military Strategy
The partnership with Egypt has prompted Somalia to declare that Ethiopian troops will not participate in the upcoming African Union force, set to commence operations in January.
Currently, approximately 3,000 Ethiopian troops are part of the ongoing AU mission, and the Somali Prime Minister recently indicated that Ethiopia would need to withdraw its additional 5,000 to 7,000 soldiers stationed under various agreements unless it reconsiders its dealings with Somaliland.
Ethiopia perceives this as an affront to the sacrifices made by its armed forces and expresses concern that such withdrawals may open it up to extremist threats, especially with the potential presence of Egyptian forces along its eastern border.
The dam on the Nile remains a major point of contention, with Egypt viewing it as a significant threat to its water supply, indicative of escalating regional tensions.
The Contentious Nature of the Nile Dam
Egypt accuses Ethiopia of jeopardizing its water supply with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which began construction in 2011 and is situated on the Blue Nile tributary.
Egypt’s government claims Ethiopia has ignored the implications of this project for downstream nations, potentially affecting vast amounts of arable land.
Conversely, Ethiopia views the dam as crucial for generating electricity for its populace and fostering economic development.
Failed diplomatic attempts to establish operational guidelines for the dam have created additional uncertainties for the region.
Potential Regional Implications and Global Concerns
Egypt’s agreement with Somalia is seen as a landmark development and a strategic move that could impact the ongoing Nile dispute.
Experts predict that military confrontations could arise if Ethiopian and Egyptian forces converge near the Somalia border.
Somaliland has echoed concerns that the establishment of Egyptian military bases could further destabilize the area.
Both Ethiopia and Somalia are currently navigating their own internal strife, making further conflict undesirable.
Any escalation may also affect the geopolitical dynamics of the Red Sea, involving various international interests due to the significance of maritime trade routes.
Countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey are exploring partnerships with African nations like Somalia, emphasizing the strategic stakes involved in the region.
As diplomatic talks are set to resume between Turkey, Ethiopia, and Somalia, the outcome of these discussions will be closely observed.
