In a recent comment regarding the accelerated pace of cryptocurrency adoption, Coinbase’s CEO projected that billions of people will be using Bitcoin by 2030.
The remarks came in response to a post highlighting findings from a significant study indicating that Bitcoin reached a remarkable milestone of 300 million users within just 12 years. This pace of adoption is reportedly 43% faster than that of mobile phones and 20% quicker than the Internet.
Armstrong noted that the estimated timeline may fluctuate based on the starting point considered for the Internet or mobile phone adoption, yet he supports the overarching conclusions drawn from the study, affirming that Bitcoin adoption could indeed reach several billion users by 2030.
Insights from the Study
A recently released study underscores Bitcoin’s rapid rise in popularity, which has begun to attract both individual and institutional investors. The findings indicate a growing reliance on Bitcoin as trust in traditional financial institutions wanes. The research also highlights a global movement aimed at simplifying the use of digital currencies for the general populace.
Historically, mobile phones took 21 years to reach the 300 million user mark, starting from the debut of the first cellular device in 1972, while the Internet achieved the same figure in just 15 years beginning in 1983.
Despite support for the study’s conclusions, some experts have raised questions regarding the methodology used to define Bitcoin users and the potential discrepancies in the counting process.
Clarifying User Metrics
Discussion around the actual number of Bitcoin users has surfaced, as varying definitions complicate the understanding of user metrics. It’s important to note that one person can hold multiple Bitcoin addresses, which could skew perceptions of overall user numbers. Furthermore, many addresses may not have been activated or used for extended periods.
Alternative research suggests a more modest estimate of Bitcoin ownership, indicating that only around 106 million individuals possessed Bitcoin as of 2025, with daily active users cited at approximately 500,000. In contrast, traditional payment systems like Visa handle over 700 million transactions daily, emphasizing the relative nascent stage of Bitcoin’s everyday use.
Evaluating Armstrong’s Prediction
Assessing Bitcoin’s adoption against the backdrop of mobile technology presents unique challenges. Unlike mobile phones, which have seen decreasing costs over time and widespread integration into daily life, Bitcoin remains a more complex entity often viewed through the lens of skepticism and regulatory scrutiny.
While mobile phones became ubiquitous within a few decades, Bitcoin faces hurdles in achieving similar penetration by 2030, when it will turn 21 years old. The experience of Bitcoin’s legal tender status in El Salvador serves as a reminder of the barriers to mass adoption, where user resistance highlighted ongoing challenges despite governmental endorsement.
In summary, while there is significant optimism regarding Bitcoin adoption, the road ahead involves addressing existing complexities and skepticism to unlock its potential for billions of users worldwide.
