The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has highlighted the significant impact of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery on the Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) market in Europe. This refinery, which operates with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, commenced operations in January 2023 and began producing petrol in September, marking Nigeria’s shift from dependence on imported fuel.
Since its inception, the Dangote refinery has successfully exported petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel to various countries across Africa and beyond. According to a recent OPEC report, the refinery’s operational ramp-up is contributing to a decrease in petroleum product imports from Europe to Nigeria.
OPEC stated, “The ongoing operational ramp-up efforts at Nigeria’s new Dangote refinery and its gasoline exports to the international market will likely weigh further on the European gasoline market.” The report indicates that increased local petrol production is freeing up gasoline volumes in international markets, resulting in necessary adjustments for new destinations.
In the final quarter of 2024, OPEC noted a decline in imports, particularly of oil products, thus improving the outlook for Nigeria’s external sector. The report also mentioned a slight increase in the gasoline crack spread in Rotterdam against Brent, although gasoline inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp storage hub remained elevated.
Forecasts suggest that inventory builds may persist into the upcoming month due to seasonal demand pressures in the gasoline market. OPEC warns that the recovery in gasoline refinery output levels could worsen the existing bearish sentiment in the market.
Additionally, the Monthly Oil Market Report revealed that Nigeria’s average daily crude production reached 1.507 million barrels in December, a rise from 1.477 million barrels per day in November. This figure aligns with the data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
Notably, the Dangote refinery ranks among the top ten largest refineries in Europe, boasting a refining capacity that surpasses several established facilities. With an impressive $20 billion investment, the Dangote refinery’s output exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands, which has a capacity of 404,000 barrels per day, making it the largest in Europe, followed by BP Rotterdam and other notable refineries within the region.
