Despite its substantial population, conversations around family growth have recently intensified. Leaders from southern states, particularly Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, are advocating for increased birth rates to address falling fertility rates.
Andhra Pradesh is considering implementing incentives to encourage larger families, having recently repealed its “two-child policy” for local elections. Similar discussions are emerging in Telangana, while Tamil Nadu is also pushing for an increased birth rate.
India’s fertility rate has dramatically decreased from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to the current rate of 2, with 17 of the 29 states and territories now below the replacement level of two births per woman.
The five southern states are at the forefront of this demographic shift, achieving replacement-level fertility ahead of the rest of the country, with Kerala reaching this stage in 1988 and Tamil Nadu in 1993.
Currently, the total fertility rates in the five southern states are below 1.6, with Karnataka at 1.6 and Tamil Nadu at 1.4, aligning with or dipping below many European nations.
However, these states express concern that changes in India’s demographics, highlighted by uneven population distributions, could significantly affect their political representation and allocation of federal resources.
“These states worry that their successful population control strategies will be disadvantageous, even though they perform well economically and contribute significantly to the central government,” noted a demography expert.
As India approaches its first delimitation of parliamentary seats in 2026—its first since 1976—southern states fear their representation could diminish, particularly as seats are adjusted to reflect current population figures.
Demographers predict that populous northern states, such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, may gain more seats, while southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh could see losses, altering the political landscape.
Experts believe that the focus should ideally be on constructive discussions between state and federal governments regarding population policies. However, a pressing concern remains: India’s rapidly aging population due to falling fertility rates.
India is projected to reach a similar aging milestone in just 28 years—much quicker than countries like France and Sweden. This remarkable shift, largely attributed to aggressive family planning initiatives, poses challenges for states with already low fertility rates struggling to support an aging population.
In Andhra Pradesh, for instance, the fertility rate stands at 1.5, similar to Sweden’s, yet the state’s per capita income is significantly lower. The rising pressure on healthcare and social services exacerbates the impending crisis, as over 40% of elderly Indians belong to the poorest income group.
As India’s demographic shifts, the country faces the impending challenge of fewer caregivers and rising healthcare demands for its expanding elderly demographic.
Urbanization and changing job markets have further weakened traditional family support structures, placing more elderly individuals at risk. Experts propose that substantial investments in social infrastructure are imperative to support the aging population.
Recently, a prominent nationalist leader encouraged families to have at least three children, expressing concerns that low growth rates could jeopardize India’s future. While there is validity to these concerns, demographers argue that persistent low fertility will likely lead to rapid population decline in the long term.
Current data suggests that a fertility rate of 1.8 births per woman could result in a gradual but manageable decline, while a drop to 1.6 or lower poses significant risks.
Experts warn that fewer young people entering the workforce will lead to serious socio-economic consequences that are challenging to reverse. This trend is already observable in various nations worldwide.
Countries like South Korea have declared their low birth rates a national crisis, while Greece has issued warnings about existential demographic threats. Nevertheless, urging higher birth rates alone may not solve the problem.
For Indian states facing a dwindling workforce, the pressing question remains: Who will fill the gap? Developed countries are actively addressing declining fertility rates through policies that emphasize healthy aging, extending working lives, and enhancing productivity among older populations.
To harness its demographic potential, India must also consider extending retirement ages and creating better health and social security systems to promote an active older demographic. There is still a significant opportunity for economic growth until 2047, yet substantive action is necessary to ensure a prosperous future amidst shifting demographic realities.
