The recent data analysis has confirmed that 2024 has marked a significant turning point in the battle against climate change, as it has become the first calendar year to see average global temperatures rise beyond the critical threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This alarming development signals a grave warning about humanity’s impact on the Earth’s climate.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that last year was officially the hottest year on record. The average global temperature surpassed the 1.5°C limit established by the Paris Agreement, emphasizing the urgent need for action to combat climate change.
This assessment is based on data gathered from six different temperature datasets, which consider the average global temperature from the period between 1850 and 1900 as a pre-industrial baseline. While there are variations in the datasets due to different ocean temperature measurement methods, it is clear that 2024 is unprecedented in this regard.
According to the UK Met Office, average temperatures for 2024 were measured at 1.53°C above pre-industrial levels, representing a 0.07°C increase from the previous record year. The European Union’s climate service indicated an even higher average at 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels for the same period.
The combination of human-induced climate change and a prevailing El Niño weather pattern has significantly contributed to the dramatic temperature increase. Although experts anticipated a drop in temperatures after the El Niño ended in May, readings remained at unprecedented levels throughout the year. This prolonged heat has affected marine ecosystems and resulted in extreme weather events, including severe heatwaves, melting polar ice, catastrophic flooding, and raging wildfires.
While the Paris Agreement allows for a 20-year average to assess compliance with the 1.5°C limit, many scientists now caution that the long-term goal may be unattainable. Recent commentary suggests an increasing likelihood of exceeding this critical threshold consistently in the coming years.
Emerging datasets, such as the new global dataset developed by researchers, indicate temperatures may have been even higher, suggesting an average of 1.66°C above pre-industrial levels for 2024. This information further corroborates concerns over the 1.5°C goal, urging stakeholders to remain ambitious in their efforts to reduce emissions.
Looking ahead to 2025, early indications reveal that global sea surface temperatures may finally start to return to expected levels. A developing La Niña phase in the equatorial Pacific could provide some relief by moderating temperatures. However, experts warn that the impacts of previous El Niño events could mean that 2024 is just the beginning of a new era in rising global temperatures.
